Happy New Year to all our subscribers
David Fuller's view The markets have
reopened with relief and also a degree of enthusiasm today, clearly with some
help from a last minute US Budget Agreement, ending the immediate fiscal cliff
banality. A successful consolidation and extension of these gains over the next
few weeks would be a significant, positive development.
We all
have our 'yes, but' concerns and questions, which is normal. However, the key
factors driving these markets and the global economy, in Fullermoney's opinion,
appear neither to be fully discounted nor to have changed significantly. Here
is a summary:
1)
The quantitative easing (QE) tailwind will eventually be withdrawn but what
matters now is that it continues and is intentionally bullish for most asset
classes; 2) The overall global fundamental economic news is inevitably chequered,
but crucially, remains better than most people
have been expecting; 3) consequently, many investors including financial institutions,
are underinvested in so-called 'risk assets', to use another banal term; 4)
as for balance sheets, many leading companies, including most Autonomies and
Dividend Aristocrats favoured by Fullermoney, are much stronger than their underlying
economies, particularly in the West.
The four
points above summarise important medium-term trends, in my opinion. It has generally
paid to run with them during the last 4 years, subject to relative performance
in what has sometimes been a volatile environment. Meanwhile, the total
return chart for US Treasuries remains steady but has seen little change
since the beginning of June 2012