Healthcare sector indices
Eoin Treacy's view I highlighted the outperformance of biotech
shares in Comment of the Day on Tuesday.
and reviewed a number of high yielding pharmaceutical shares on July
3rd.
While
the cutting edge of technological development in the healthcare sector has the
capacity to inspire investor interest, healthcare also exhibits significant
defensive qualities and large cap pharmaceuticals have some of the most attractive
yields of any asset class. As a result they have outperformed over the last
few months as more industrially oriented sectors have laboured under the assumption
that global growth is on a downward spiral.
The
Nasdaq Healthcare Index has become somewhat
overextended relative to the 200-day MA and mean reversion appears likely. However,
a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question medium-term
upside potential. The Euro Stoxx Healthcare
Index has also performed impressively but is equally susceptible to mean reversion.
The
FTSE-350 Healthcare Index has held a
progression of higher reaction lows since October and is now testing the upper
side of the 10-month congestion area. A sustained move below 3200 would be required
to question potential for continued higher to lateral ranging. S&P/ASX
Healthcare Index rallied impressively from the October lows to test the
psychological 9250 area. While still somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day
MA, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question potential
for a successful upward break.
The
Japanese Pharmaceuticals sector rallied
to break the 5-year progression of lower rally highs in March and found support
above the December lows in June. A sustained move below 90 would be required
to question medium-term recovery potential.
Both
the Thai and Indian healthcare sectors are heavily influenced by the medical
tourism industry. The Thai Healthcare
sector has been accelerating higher but hit at least a short-term peak near
the psychological 2500 this week. Mean reversion is most likely underway but
a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question the integrity
of the medium-term uptrend. The Indian
Healthcare sector hit a medium-term peak in January 2011 and spent much
of the last 18 months ranging. It moved to a new all-time high this week and
a clear downward dynamic would be required to question potential for additional
upside. Singapore is also prominent
in the medical tourism sector but its healthcare sector has lagged somewhat
over the last few months. It posted a large weekly key reversal in February
and has pulled back to test the lower side of the underlying trading range.
The Index needs to continue to find support in the region of 1200 if the medium-term
upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
The
S&P/TSX Healthcare Index has pulled
back steadily towards the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying trading
range since late April. It will need to find support in the current region if
the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Following
a steep decline, the Chinese S&P/Citic
300 Healthcare Index found support near 3000 in January and has held a progression
of higher reaction lows since. A sustained move below 3225 would be required
to question recovery potential.
From
an investment perspective, the UK listed Worldwide
Healthcare Trust (2.4%) trades at discount to NAV of -8%. It has rallied
for the last five consecutive weeks and hit at least a near-term peak this week.
Mean reversion is looking increasingly likely but a sustained move below the
750p area would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.
(Also see Comment of the Day on January
26th).