Heavyweight 109-page report focusing on gold and silver miners
Comment of the Day

November 24 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Heavyweight 109-page report focusing on gold and silver miners

Eoin Treacy's view Subscribers with an interest in precious metal miners are sure to find it illuminating. All of the shares mentioned in the report can be found in the Chart Library and here is a Performance Filter containing them as well a number of others. The gold mining sector was one of the first to bottom following the financial meltdown of October 2008 and has been a Fullermoney favourite for the better part of a decade.

The NYSE Arca Goldbugs Index regained its pre-crisis peak by December 2009 and consolidated in that region until late September when it broke upwards. It has since held the advance and a sustained move below 500 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Against the background of considerable volatility in precious metals prices, large cap miners have been comparatively steady, cushioned at least in part by the continued elevated prices for their products.

The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and the FTSE/JSE Africa Gold Mining Index remain rangebound primarily as a result of the strength of their respective currencies. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index has bucked this trend by breaking to new highs in early September. It encountered resistance in the region of 8000 from late September and continues to unwind the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below 7000 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Newcrest Mining approximates the chart pattern of the Index and continues to consolidate in the region of the 2008 peak. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near A$37 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Most of the above gold share indices are heavily weighted by large cap companies which have less leverage to the gold price. Mid-tier producers and developers have performed much more impressively and some have quite attractive chart patterns.

Eldorado Gold remains in a consistent step sequence uptrend. It is currently testing the 200-day MA and a rally from here would confirm support in this area and increase the likelihood of a sustained move to new medium-term highs.

Randgold Resources has a relatively similar pattern and has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions over the last two years. A sustained move below this mean would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Alamos Gold found support near the MA a month ago and rallied impressively. A sustained move below $16 would be needed to question upside potential.

IAM Gold was an early leader but has been consolidating for most of the year as it unwound the overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. It is currently testing the MA and a sustained move above $20 is now required to reassert the medium-term uptrend.

Fronteer Gold, Highland Gold Mining, High River Gold Mines have all rallied impressively over the last two years and would need to take out their progressions of rising major reactions and their respective 200-day MAs to question medium-term upside potential.

Royal Gold has improved steadily over the last decade, posting three relatively lengthy consolidations one above another. It is currently testing the upper side of the most recent yearlong range and a sustained move below $46 would be needed to delay potential for some additional upside.

There are also a number of additional companies listed in this Performance Filter that are accelerating higher; increasing the risk of a reversion towards the mean. Gold prices continue to consolidate below the high near $1450 and provided an approximation of such high prices is sustained, the medium-term outlook for gold shares remains favourable.

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