Hot political summer as China throttles rare metal supply and claims South China Sea
Comment of the Day

August 02 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Hot political summer as China throttles rare metal supply and claims South China Sea

My thanks to a subscriber for this interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for The Telegraph. Here is the opening
The United States and Europe have been remarkably insouciant about supplies of rare earth minerals so crucial to frontier technologies, from hybrid engines to mobile phones, superconductors, radar and smart bombs.

Lack of strategic planning by the West has allowed China to acquire a world monopoly on this family of seventeen metals. Assumptions that Beijing would never risk its reputation as a global team player by abruptly strangling supply have proved naive.

China's commerce ministry has cut export quotas for these metals by 72pc for the second half of this year. It is perhaps the starkest move to date in the Great Power clash over scarce resources.

The Pentagon and the US Energy Department are still scrambling to work out what this means for US security. An interim report from the Government Accounting Office (GAO) has laid bare just how delicate the situation has become.

"The US previously performed all stages of the rare earth material supply chain, but now most rare earth materials processing is performed in China, giving it a dominant position. In 2009, China produced about 97 percent of rare earth oxides. Rebuilding a U.S. rare earth supply chain may take up to 15 years," it said.

Fifteen years?

David Fuller's view Prior to today, the Fullermoney Archive has listed 17 entries under 'rare earth' metals. Search separately under 'rare earths' and you will find another 12 entries. Here are weekly charts, where possible, for the rare earth metal shares mentioned in The Telegraph: Molycorp Inc (no price history); Arafura rebounding following a test of the small October 2008 to April 2009 base; Lynas Corp has resumed its recovery following a lengthy consolidation; Avalon Rare Metals has rebounded from prior support and would need to close beneath C$1.90 to question sideways to higher scope; Greenland Minerals' upward dynamic indicates renewed demand for this Australian share.

These shares are highly speculative as they have little or no current earnings. Nevertheless, rare earth mines are an intriguing story which is back in play.

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