We believe the likelihood that the USD has peaked and expected further strong official sector and coin & bar and jewellery demand present compelling arguments for higher gold prices in 2023 and beyond. That said, until the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle is complete, and institutional demand for gold increases, prices may be constrained. This leads us to look for weakish prices in early 2023 with increases more likely as the year unfolds

Eoin Treacy's view

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Generally speaking gold requires a series of catalysts to spur a significant uptrend. The first is negative real interest rates. That’s when interest rates are deliberately held below inflation for a prolonged period to denude savers of the opportunity to profit from conservative investments. That policy also inflates asset prices and decreases the purchasing power of cash. However, negative real rates are not a sufficient catalyst for outsized performance by gold.

A weak Dollar, coupled with negative real rates has historically been a major catalyst for outsized performance by gold. That’s because it injects urgency into the argument and forces investors to seek alternatives to the Dollar. That’s the situation we have now. Gold found support this week in the region of the October high.


At some point the question of unsustainable debt will return to being topical. Then the question will be how willing politicians will be to engage in fiscal austerity. Without it the dollar will fall and gold could thrive.