HSBC's Asia Moves May Make 'Colonial' Standard Chartered Follow
Comment of the Day

February 26 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

HSBC's Asia Moves May Make 'Colonial' Standard Chartered Follow

This article by Jon Menon for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
HSBC Holdings Plc's decision to move Chief Executive Officer Michael Geoghegan and three more top bankers to Hong Kong from London may force Standard Chartered Plc to follow its example, money managers and analysts said.

Geoghegan, 56, moved to Hong Kong this month, joining Sandy Flockhart, chairman of personal and commercial banking. Standard Chartered CEO Peter Sands, a former British diplomat, said last year he will stay in London.

HSBC is moving the executives to Asia as it focuses on faster-growing emerging markets like China and India, the bank said. The lender reaped more than half of its 2008 pretax profit in Asia, compared with 94 percent for Standard Chartered. HSBC's decision sparked concern in London that more financial firms might follow, jeopardizing the British capital's position as a global financial center.

HSBC's stock has trailed Standard Chartered in the past
year: the lender has climbed 65 percent in London trading, compared with Standard Chartered's 127 percent gain in the same period. The U.K.'s FTSE 350 Banks Index advanced 82 percent.

"There's a slight essence of the colonial for Far Eastern banks to have headquarters in the U.K.," said Richard Champion, who helps manage $2 billion as head of equities at Principal Investment Management Ltd. in London and holds HSBC shares.

"The key point here is proximity to your main markets." Moving top executives "must be under active consideration" for Standard Chartered, he said.

Eoin Treacy's view The FTSE-350 Banks sector has 5 remaining members following the nationalizations and mergers that have taken place in the last two years. In descending order of weighting these are: HSBC, Barclays, Standard Chartered, Lloyds TSB and Royal Bank of Scotland.

Of these Lloyds reported disappointing earnings today accentuated by bad loans inherited from HBOS. Royal Bank of Scotland has needed one of the largest bailouts in history to remain afloat and while it has made progress with its loan book, further rehabilitation is required. Barclays is attempting to trade its way out of trouble. The better performers, HSBC and Standard Chartered, share the characteristic of having global franchises leveraged to growth in the world's population centres.

HSBC has more than doubled since finding support last March near 270p. It has been ranging in the region of 700p since October; leaving the more than three-year progression of lower rally highs intact. The share found support in the region of the 200-day moving average three weeks ago and has rallied to test the short-term progression of lower rally highs within the present range. A break of this short-term downtrend would offer convincing evidence of a return to demand dominance in the short to medium term, while a sustained move above 800p would indicate long-term demand dominance.

Standard Chartered has also rallied impressively from its March low and continues to consolidate below the 2008 high. It also found support in the area of the 200-day moving average three weeks ago and rallied to test the short-term progression of lower highs; in a move similar to HSBC's recent bounce. A sustained move below 1350p would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Barclays encountered resistance below 400p from October and has pulled back to 250p, above which it continues to range. The share needs to sustain a move back above 330p to indicate a return to demand dominance.

Lloyds TSB also hit a medium-term peak in October and remains in a five-month downtrend. It is currently rallying from 46p but needs to sustain a move above 60p to break the progression of lower highs, move back above the MA and suggest that demand is regaining the upper hand.

Royal Bank of Scotland remains a candidate for a lengthy convalescence as it continues to develop a base. It has rallied well in the last month to test 40p but would need to sustain a move above 60p to complete the base and indicate significant recovery potential.

These charts clearly illustrate that the banks most likely to perform in the present cycle are those leveraged to the world's growth leaders.

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