Iain Little's Fund Manager's Diary: Triple Waterfalls and Rumpelstilstskin
Comment of the Day

September 11 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Iain Little's Fund Manager's Diary: Triple Waterfalls and Rumpelstilstskin

My thanks to the erudite and experienced author for his latest Diary notes, published by Global Thematic Investors. Here is a portion:
Talking of fairy-tales, we are coining "The Rumpelstilstskin Effect", before others do. Rumpelstilstskin, fairy tale fans will recollect, was a dwarf who spun straw into gold. The miller's daughter could only struggle with this enviable skill (despite her father/;s boastful claims). Much mischief resulted. Creating demand (gold) from QE and bond-buying (straw) will not succeed whilst end-demanders (you, me and our friends) refuse to borrow, or banks to lend. The challenge, as any bank-robber will tell you, is to get the money out of the banks and into the high street. We are confident that this challenge, the Real Recovery, will spur another spate of imagery. Staying with fairy tales, we anticipate "The Rapunzel Effect", mindful of poor lovely Rapunzel, locked up in her tower, who was finally persuaded to let down her hair.

Inspired by Wall Street's champagne corks, we re-ran our "Global 1000" on Friday. This is our scorecard for the largest 1,000 global listed businesses and is designed to show us which stones to look under in our stock selection. Its 10 factors -growth and reliability of sales, earnings and dividends, as well as valuation measures like PERs, dividend yields and PEG ratios- made us sit up. Of the world's 100 most attractive companies, fully a third is Chinese. In fact, 25 of the top 50 are in China. Something is wrong. Either China really is in deep despairing do-do, or the Chinese stock market is a monstrous buy. We were intrigued by the price action this week, when China burst up like a fire-cracker through 4 months of lower highs.

The most attractive stock in the UK? Standard Chartered Bank, recently the victim of poor PR. And the single most attractive stock in the world? Etihad Etisalat in Saudi Arabia, with another Gulf leader, Qatar National Bank also 10 under par on the leader board, and going well. The world turns and we must turn with it.

David Fuller's view Fullermoney was also impressed with China's latest stimulus and the market response (see Monday's and last Friday's Comment).

Standard Chartered (weekly & historic, yield 3.89%) has mostly traded in a range between 150p and 200p since July 2009. It also shows a slight downward bias since its peak in November 2010, although action since October 2011 suggests support building. The longer-term performance remains outstanding and the share would need to sustain a break beneath £12 to offset current scope for sideways to higher ranging. Etihad Etisalat (weekly & monthly, 2.91%) provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services in Saudi Arabia. The performance has been impressive and while some resistance is being encountered near the year's earlier high, a close beneath SAR60 would be required to offset significantly current prospects for higher scope over the medium term. It is also worth having a look at Saudi Telecom (weekly & historic, 5.01%), which has lagged but has a very big base and attractive yield. Qatar National Bank (weekly & monthly, 2.73% has been mostly rangebound near its highs for the last 21 months. Currently, I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt, not least because it has scored well on Iain Little's fundamental filter, but a move below QAR130 would begin to erode support within the current range.

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