Indian equities
Eoin Treacy's view India
has come under some quite sustained negative press over the last few months.
Complaints about the quality of governance in the face of higher food prices
as well as a slew of corruption scandals have rocked investor confidence.
The stock
market, having been one of the best global performers in 2010, has experienced
a deeper pullback than many of its Asian neighbours; spending much of the last
few months ranging below its 200-day MA. Despite short-term negative sentiment,
India remains on a solid long-term growth trajectory. The Nifty
Index posted an impressive upward dynamic today which further bolsters the view
that it has completed its mean reversion.
The Bombay
Banks Index has been a lead indicator for the wider stock market since bottoming
in early 2009. It had become quite overextended relative to the trend mean,
represented by the 200-day MA, when it hit a medium-term peak near 15,000 in
November. The Index pulled back to test the 2008 peak near 12,000 by January
and today's upward dynamic breaks the five-month progression of lower rally
highs. At this point a sustained move below 11,400 would be required to question
recovery potential. (Also see Comment of the Day on September
10th).
Indian
bank ADRs such as HDFC, ICICI
Bank and the London listed GDR for State
Bank of India are all performing more or less in line with the Bombay Banks
Index.
USA listed
Healthcare company, Dr Reddys Laboratories,
is performing in line with the wider Nifty Index. UK listed Ranbaxy
Laboratories has had a considerably deeper reaction and needs to sustain
a move above $12 to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.
Tata
Motors was one of last year's star performers but had become quite overextended
relative to the 200-day MA when it encountered resistance near $38 in November.
It has since pulled back to find support in the region of the MA, near $25,
and a sustained move below $23 would be required to question recovery potential.
Information
Technology company, Wipro has been ranging
mostly above the 200-day MA since late 2009. It pushed back above $24 this week
and a sustained move below $12.50 would be required to question medium-term
scope for additional higher to lateral ranging. Infosys
has also completed a reversion to the mean and appears to be in the process
of confirming support in the region of $65