Indonesia ends 6-month ban of metal concentrate exports
Comment of the Day

July 21 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Indonesia ends 6-month ban of metal concentrate exports

This article by Wilda Anmarini may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

However, last week shipments of iron ore, lead and zinc concentrate left the country, after two firms agreed to pay a 20 percent export tax, coal and minerals director general Sukhyar told reporters late on Friday.

"There are two firms that have started to export; Sebuku Iron Lateritic Ores (SILO), and Lumbung Mineral Sentosa," Sukhyar said, adding that SILO had sent two shipments or around 100,000 tonnes of iron ore concentrate and Lumbung had shipped around 8,000 tonnes of lead and zinc concentrate already.

"They finally wanted to pay it," Sukhyar said referring to the escalating tax that has been the subject of a legal dispute involving U.S. miner Newmont Mining Corp.

?Silo expected to export 8 million tonnes of Iron ore concentrate a year, while Lumbung should ship 29,000 tonnes a year, he added. Both companies were exporting to China, Sukhyar said.

Eoin Treacy's view

Indonesia’s ban on ore-concentrate exports was one of the primary drivers in nickel’s impressive advance this year. The fact that the ban has been relaxed by the new administration suggests that while Indonesia may now require a greater share in its mineral exports via taxes, that exports will proceed. The projected deficit in the nickel market may ease as a result. 

Nickel prices hit at least a short-term peak in May and continue to consolidate the earlier advance. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to suggest a return to supply dominance beyond the short term. 

Traders appear to be waiting to see how many miners will be willing to pay the additional taxes and what effect this will have on exports. Nickel miners such as Sherritt International and Eramet continue to range above their respective 200-day MAs. 

Western Areas continues to hold a progression of higher reaction lows but is becoming progressively more overextended relative to the 200-day MA. 

Norilsk Nickel, which has previously been relatively immune to the geopolitical risk represented by Russia, has fallen to challenge its progression of higher reaction lows. It will need to find support in the current area if the medium-term uptrend is to remain reasonably consistent.  

 

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