Industrial metal miners
Eoin Treacy's view Some
of the greatest opportunities arise when one can identify an asset class or
sector which has been out of favour, written-off as an investment prospect or
ignored by the media, that then begins to exhibit relative strength.
As
fears of global economic slowdown at a minimum and financial Armageddon at the
extreme stalked markets over the last year, the industrial complex fell out
of favour with global investors. The grinding pace of China's monetary tightening
weighed on commodity demand growth forecasts and expectations deteriorated significantly
as prices fell. Everything from heavy machinery to shipping, chemicals and mining
pulled back sharply from July 2011 and failed to recover from October when the
wider market and particularly the consumer sector picked up.
This
underperformance was identified as a symptom of a wider malaise by some analysts
who heralded the inevitability of an additional down leg for stock markets.
At Fullermoney, while we want to understand problems as they arise, our aim
is to remain solution focused. As the risk of a global economic contraction
rose, central banks were presented with an increasing incentive to ease policy.
The ECB's bond buying program, China's increased infrastructure spend, the prospect
of lower short-term interest rates across Asia and potentially an additional
round of quantitative easing from the USA all point towards increases in liquidity
which have typically been well received by investors.
Copper
bounced in the region of $3 from October and subsequently found support near
£3.25 on successive occasions. Despite this loss of momentum the medium-term
progression of lower rally highs remains intact. Prices have rallied impressively
over the last few weeks and are challenging the yearlong downtrend. A sustained
move back below $3.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued
upside. As the industrial metal that has held up best, copper has been a tailwind
for related equities.
Southern
Copper has held a progression of higher reaction lows since May and is rallying
towards the psychological $37 area. A sustained move above that level would
reassert medium-term demand dominance
Grupo
Mexico exhibits a rounding characteristic consistent with accumulation as
it tests the MXN43 area. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required
to question potential for a successful upward break.
Antofagasta
has also rallied impressively over the last few weeks and is testing the medium-term
downtrend. A sustained move above 1400p would confirm a return to demand dominance
beyond the short term. Freeport-McMoran Copper
& Gold Inc has a similar pattern
As
well as forming part of the triumvirate of major iron-ore producers, Rio
Tinto with its access to the Oyu Tolgoi mine will be a major copper producer
in its own right. It posted an upside key reversal last week and a sustained
move below 2650p would be required to question potential for some additional
upside.
Cliffs
Natural Resources, Anglo American
and Teck Resources all also formed upside
key reversals last week.
BHP
Billiton continues to rebound and a clear downward dynamic would be required
to question potential for a successful break above 2000p.