Industrialising the Internet
Eoin Treacy's view The technology sector has always
been highly competitive and this is unlikely to change. However 2013 is likely
to mark an important milestone in its evolution. The trajectory of chip development,
which has seen chips sizes halve and speeds double every two years since the
1950s (Moore's Law), is set to decelerate to approximately every three years.
The reason for this is because as the “gates” on a chip approach the width of
a silicon atom, the issues of heat dissipation and size represent progressively
more important challenges. This has accelerated the search for an alternative
to silicon and explains why there is such excitement about the potential for
graphene and carbon nanotubes.
In
the meantime, one of the reasons ARM Holdings has done so well is because the
energy efficiency of its designs has made them indispensable for manufacturers
of handheld devices. The share broke out of an 18-month range in October and
hit a peak near 1000p at the beginning of this month. It is currently consolidating
and a sustained move above 1000p would be required to reaffirm the medium-term
uptrend. It would be best bought following a reversion towards the mean, represented
by the 200-day MA.
While
ARM Holdings, Apple and Samsung have garnered the most media attention, there
is also a group of companies that are worthy of mention because they have underperformed.
The tech bust that followed the boom of the 1990s saw a significant number of
companies disappear. Others such as Google waited until after the crash to list.
Amazon and Apple were among the first to bounce back and hit new all-time highs.
A large number of shares related to the cloud computing sector broke out in
2010. Therefore the companies that remain in base formations today do so for
a reason.
Broadcom,
Texas Instruments, Cisco
Systems, STMicroelectronics, Micron
Technology, CA Inc., Xilinx,
Linear Technology, Akamai
Technology and Fairchild Semiconductor
all remain in more than decade-long base formations. Increased demand for internet
connectivity from both the corporate and domestic sectors might yet be the catalyst
for base formation completion. Seagate Technology
and Symantec
have completed bases relatively recently while CA Inc. from
the above list has the most well-defined progression of higher reaction lows
within its base. (Also see David's piece above).