Interesting charts January 7th 2016
Hungary – The Forint has been somewhat weaker than the Euro but not overly so while the stock market has been among the better performers globally over the last year. It is currently testing the 2010/11 highs and some consolidation is likely. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question the medium-term upward bias.
Estonia has been among the least volatile of Eurozone stock markets over the last year but encountered resistance in the region of the upper side of a yearlong range today suggesting a sustained move above 900 would be required to signal renewed demand dominance.
Lithuania has a similar pattern.
Bulgaria rallied over the last month to close an overextension relative to the trend mean and consolidation of that move is now underway. It will need to find support above the December low during this pullback to lend credibility to the case for recovery.
The media has been awash with stories detailing the dire plight of refugees and increasing tensions between Turkey and Russia in particular, with the result that the performance of the wider regional stock markets has been ignored. The above markets look set for some consolidation so it will be instructive to see how well they hold their gains once this corrective phase has run its course.