David Fuller's view Have a look at the graph in this report which is a useful contrary indicator. I have always felt that it was best at identifying market bottoms following significant declines. Many of the overbought readings occur early, as you will see.

Nevertheless, the risk of another reaction and consolidation on Wall Street are increasing, and they are already occurring in a number of other stock markets. On current evidence, I expect a Wall Street reaction similar to the two setbacks in 2012. However, that may depend on how high US stock market indices move before the next correction commences. Based on the evidence that we currently have, I do not expect a statistical bear market on Wall Street, defined as a pullback in excess of 20%.