Is silver still a monetary metal? Perhaps not, but is that even relevant?
As with almost any investment, perception is the real key to value growth - and silver is perceived to rank alongside gold as an ultimate store of value. It will thus almost certainly continue to move up and down with gold - but be more volatile in those movements and perhaps more vulnerable to a sharp take-down by powerful financial elements. If you are thus convinced that the gold price will continue on an upwards path as the global economy continues with its trials and tribulations, then silver will likely remain a great bet too with the basic potential for an even stronger upside. But beware the danger of the occasional very sharp fall along the upwards path.
Eoin Treacy's view David has long referred to silver as high-beta gold. The smaller, less liquid
nature of the market has contributed to this phenomenon as well as the fact
that prices are lower which facilitates greater participation by speculators.
The Gold / Silver ratio hit a 19-year
low, near 30, last year as silver prices tested $50 and subsequently doubled
as silver halved. During silver's decline gold was fairly steady by comparison,
within what has turned into a yearlong range.
Silver
rallied impressively though August and early September and has paused over the
last month below $36. This area has offered resistance on at least three occasions
over the last year and while it has mostly consolidated above $35, silver will
need to sustain a move above $36 to reaffirm medium-term demand dominance. Nothing
has occurred to question scope for a successful upward break.
Silver
miners fell abruptly with the silver price and came under additional pressure
as the cost concerns associated with gold miners gained wider notoriety earlier
this year. Since then, a number have exhibited patterns of renewed investor
interest but a great deal of variability in performance remains evident.
While
Fresnillo is no longer an S&P Europe
350 dividend aristocrat, it continues to yield 1.78%. The share has rallied
to retest the 2000p area and while somewhat overbought in the very short term,
a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 1650p, would be required
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Interestingly while it
underperformed the metal last year, it is now outperforming.
Elsewhere
in the silver mining sector Silver Wheaton,
Endeavour Silver and Coeur
d'Alene Mines have paused in the region of previous areas of resistance
and sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to
question medium-term scope for additional upside.
MAG
Silver outperformed by breaking an eighteen month progression of lower rally
highs in September and while the likelihood of some consolidation has increased,
the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the upside provided it
holds above the $10 area. First Majestic
also broke a medium-term progression of lower rally highs and has paused in
the region of last year's peak over the last month. A sustained move below the
MA, currently near $17.80, would be required to question potential for a successful
upward break.
Fortuna
Silver has pulled back to test the region of the 200-day MA where it has
found at least short-term support. Silver
Standard Resources has also pulled back to test its MA and will need to
find support in this area if medium-term demand dominance is to be reasserted.
Hecla
Mines and Pan American Silver both
rallied to break 18-month downtrends in August and are now consolidating above
their respective MAs. Both shares have significant recovery potential provided
the metal price remains firm.