Is the US the new Japan?
Comment of the Day

September 20 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Is the US the new Japan?

Thanks to a subscriber for this excellent, well-illustrated presentation by Thorsten Slok for Deutsche Bank. Here are some bullet points
US policymakers acted faster and more aggressively than Japan in the 1990s

US economy is more resilient than the Japanese economy

Key question is when the ongoing adjustments in the housing, banking and household sectors are coming to an end.

We probably have one or two years left - but not ten

Bottom Line: The US is unlikely to experience a 10-year period with deflation

Eoin Treacy's view This report accords much more with our own view than the deflationary cheerleading which dominated over the last couple of month. If one can assume with a reasonable degree of certainty that deflation is not going to the dominant theme of the next decade, then government bonds paying negligible yields by historical standards offer very little value at anywhere close to current levels.

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