Is the US the new Japan?
Thanks
to a subscriber for this excellent, well-illustrated presentation
by Thorsten Slok for Deutsche Bank. Here are some bullet points
US policymakers acted faster and more aggressively than Japan in the 1990s
US economy is more resilient than the Japanese economy
Key question is when the ongoing adjustments in the housing, banking and household sectors are coming to an end.
We probably have one or two years left - but not ten
Bottom Line: The US is unlikely to experience a 10-year period with deflation
Eoin Treacy's view This report accords much more with our own view than the deflationary cheerleading which dominated over the last couple of month. If one can assume with a reasonable degree of certainty that deflation is not going to the dominant theme of the next decade, then government bonds paying negligible yields by historical standards offer very little value at anywhere close to current levels.
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