The Israelis are “almost in the comic situation of threatening to strike repeatedly -- this is the third threat in three months -- but nothing ever happens, which in my view is damaging to their credibility,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington policy group.

Barak in February said that Israel would need to act militarily within months, before Iran reaches a “zone of immunity” where its underground enrichment facilities would be invulnerable to Israeli air strikes.

‘Radio Silence'
Isaac Herzog, a parliament member from the opposition Labor party, criticized the government for creating the impression of an imminent attack.

“If Netanyahu and Barak are serious about the subject, they should maintain ‘radio silence' about it, and Netanyahu should meet with Obama in the White House to discuss it,” Herzog told Israel Radio.

Polls show the Israeli public's opposition to a strike has been easing. Some 46 percent of Israelis are against an attack on Iran without U.S. support, according to a poll by the Dialog Institute reported on Channel 10 on Aug. 12. That compares with 58 percent opposed to such a move in a survey by Dialog published on March 8 in Haaretz. Both surveys questioned 500 Israeli adults.

Eoin Treacy's view There has been a great deal of speculation about whether Israel is on the cusp of attacking Iran. The InTrade.com chart of the chances of an airstrike against Iran by September 30 th is only at 9% but does show signs of base formation completion. While notable this does not contribute to the possibility that such a move may occur. The simple fact is that no one knows what is going to happen. The one solid conclusion in this situation is that it contributes to uncertainty.

When this question was raised at the New York venue for The Chart Seminar in April, I hypothesised that the Israeli stock market index would be a reasonable barometer for the risk of an Israeli/Iran war. At the time, the Index was pushing back above the 200-day MA. Since then it has fallen to break the progression of higher reaction lows and has been drifting below the MA for two months. A sustained move back above 1000 is now required to question potential for an additional test of underlying trading.

Brent crude oil failed to sustain the move below $100 in late June and rebounded impressively over the last six weeks. It is becoming increasingly overbought in the short-term as it approaches the psychological $120 but a break in the progression of higher reaction lows would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.