Italian, Spanish Bonds Slide After Auctions; German Bunds Gain
Spain sold 3.16 billion euros of 12- and 18-month bills, less than its maximum target of 3.5 billion euros, the central bank said. The average yield on the 12-month securities climbed to 5.022 percent from 3.608 percent at the previous sale of the debt on Oct. 18. The 18-month bill yield climbed to 5.159 percent from 3.801 percent.
Spain is also planning to auction 4 billion euros of bonds due in 2022 in two days.
Greece sold 1.3 billion euros of 91-day bills at 4.63 percent, up from 4.61 percent at the previous offering. Belgium auctioned 2.73 billion euros bills, less than the 3.2 billion euros it planned to raise. The nation paid the highest yield in three years on one-year securities.
Monti struggled to form a Cabinet yesterday amid concern he will be unable to tame the sovereign-debt crisis. President Giorgio Napolitano offered him the post on Nov. 13, a day after Silvio Berlusconi resigned. He holds a final day of talks today.
Eoin Treacy's view The main question being asked by bond vigilantes is just how much money is the
ECB willing to print? The Bank has been expanding its balance sheet since 2008.
Initially it made unlimited liquidity available via the discount window to support
the banking sector. Then it felt obligated to purchase, Greek debt. It next
bought Irish and Portuguese bonds. Last week it purchased Italian bonds. So
what's next?
Swap
lines with the Federal Reserve were reopened to achieve these most recent purchases
without having to call on European governments to supply the ECB with additional
capital. Provided the ECB does not have to take a loss on its purchases, the
swaps can be unwound and the balance sheet allowed to contract over time. However,
if the ECB has to crystalise a loss in its holdings of sovereign bonds and/or
the collateral it accepted via the discount window, it will need to sell high
quality assets, such as German Bunds, demand more capital from Eurozone countries
or print additional currency to cover the loss.
Greece
is in the midst of a managed default. Holders, including the ECB, have agreed
to at least a 50% haircut on their positions. Governments are wrangling over
how the situation is going to be managed. Just about all governments now have
to implement some form of austerity. Political upheaval, voter recalcitrance,
deteriorating sentiment and slowing economic growth have all led to a situation
where investors have run out of patience with the Eurozone.
I have
previously posted charts of Greek,
Portuguese, Irish,
Italian, Spanish,
Belgian and French
bonds spread over German Bunds. There has been a commonality among these chart
patterns with first one then another coming under selling pressure relative
to Bunds. However, Austrian, Finnish
and Dutch spreads are now also experiencing
upward pressure and their chart patterns resemble those of the first group.
This is an unsettling development. Compared to Germany these three countries
might have smaller economies but they have similar fiscal conditions and their
ability to pay their debts has previously been unquestioned. So what has changed?
The ECB
cannot opt for quantitative easing without the approval of Eurozone governments
because they will need to continue to implement austerity. This will create
a transfer mechanism from the core to the periphery and needs to come into being
if the potential for an inflationary outcome is to be lessened. At least part
of the reason investors are now selling holdings in Austrian, Finnish and Dutch
debt is because they are uncertain as to the outcome. In the event that quantitative
easing is adopted, they will have to pick up the bill. Germany is currently
being viewed as an exception. However, German debt will probably also come under
selling pressure since it will need to bear the greatest share of the additional
debt burden in a quantitative easing scenario. The potential unwinding of sovereign
bond pairs trades could also put additional upward pressure on German yields.
EuroBund
futures lost momentum over the last 10 weeks
and at least partially unwound the overbought condition relative to the 200-day
MA in the process. They have rallied back to test the upper side of the range
below 140 and a sustained move above that level would be required reassert the
uptrend. A clear downward dynamic would reconfirm resistance in this area.