Ivanhoe considering two-part sale
Comment of the Day

December 09 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Ivanhoe considering two-part sale

This article by Michael Erman for Reuters appeared in today's Mineweb newsletter. Here is a section:
After disposing of all of the assets except for the Oyu Tolgoi stake, Ivanhoe would look for a buyer for the part of the company not owned by its largest shareholder, Rio Tinto (RIO.L) (RIO.AX), the source said on Wednesday. Ivanhoe is valued at more than $15.5 billion.
Ivanhoe's plans could still change, the source said.

Ivanhoe and Rio Tinto put aside an ongoing spat, agreeing on Wednesday to a new financing plan that moved Oyu Tolgoi a step closer to getting built.

Rio Tinto is in the process of lifting its ownership stake in the Canadian miner to 42.3 percent and currently has the right to buy up to 49 percent of the company.

Rio and Ivanhoe have a standstill agreement that expires in January 2012 that keeps the Anglo-Australian mining company from taking majority control of Ivanhoe.

A spokesman for Ivanhoe declined to comment. Rio Tinto was not immediately able to comment.

Ivanhoe opened the door to other buyers in July by terminating a clause in their agreement that restricted sales to other strategic investors. But Rio still has the right to make its own offer if Ivanhoe decides to sell itself.

Oyu Tolgoi is one of the world's biggest untapped copper-gold deposits. Development of the project was delayed for years due to complicated royalty negotiations between Ivanhoe and the Mongolian government.

Eoin Treacy's view Ivanhoe succeeded, against the odds, in gaining the right to develop the Oyu Tolgoi mine and has been equally successful in realising their investment's value through the capital markets. (Also see Comment of the Day on January 8th). http://www.fullermoney.com/x/default.html?mc=y&id=1809&schtxt=ivanhoe

The share consolidated in the region of the 2007 peak from January until September and has rallied impressively over the last few months. The resolution of the dispute with Rio Tinto has removed the potential that an outside bidder might swoop in and acquire Robert Friedland's stake which has resulted in a short-term pullback. However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently in the region of C$20 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Investor interest in copper remains undiminished with copper prices continuing to hold above $4. A high degree of commonality is evident in the related shares.

Southern Copper continues to consolidate below the 2007 peak and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term potential for a successful upward break. Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde, a Peruvian subsidiary more leveraged to the copper price, broke above its 2007 peak in early October and has since accelerated to SOL50. While it is becoming increasing overextended relative to the 200-day MA, reactions have been limited to SOL3.50 and a larger reaction would be required to indicate the onset of a reversionary process.

Grupo Mexico, Antofagasta and KGHM Polska have been similar outperformers but are all becoming increasingly overextended relative to their respective 200-day MAs.

Jiangxi Copper broke out of a 15-month range in October and continues to consolidate above it. A sustained move below HK$20 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Freeport-McMoRan has outperformed somewhat but has a relatively similar pattern. Boliden also consolidated above a relatively lengthy range and reasserted the medium-term uptrend last week.

Oz Minerals, Lundin Mining Corp and Hudbay Minerals have all recently broke out of relatively lengthy ranges and would need to sustain moves below their respective 200-day MAs to question medium-term upside potential. Equinox Minerals continues to consolidate in the region of the 2007 peak.

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