Ivory Coast Group Claims Attack on Army as Violence Worsens
Comment of the Day

February 24 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Ivory Coast Group Claims Attack on Army as Violence Worsens

This article by Baudelaire Mieu, Olivier Monnier and Pauline Bax for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Violence is escalating in Ivory Coast as an armed group claimed responsibility for its first attack on government troops in the commercial capital, Abidjan.

The Liberation Movement of the Population of Abobo-Anyama said 27 people were killed in the assault late on Feb. 22. The army put the figure at eight, including one soldier and seven people it described as rebels.

The attack by the group, which is named after two neighborhoods of Abidjan that support President-elect Alassane Ouattara, represents a new twist in violence that has marked the world's top cocoa producer since a disputed election on Nov. 28 left it with two rival administrations. While the international community recognizes Ouattara as the winner, incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to resign, citing alleged voter fraud.

Security forces returned to Abobo yesterday afternoon in a large-scale operation, residents said. "Police came into the neighborhood around 4 p.m.," Ladji Soumahoro, who lives in Abobo, said by phone yesterday. "They were firing everywhere. Everybody was scared, they stayed at home, scared of being hit by a random shot."

Eoin Treacy's view Political unrest across North Africa has overshadowed the continued threat of civil war in the Ivory Coast and the resulting upward pressure this is putting on cocoa prices.

US traded cocoa has been consolidating below $3500 since early 2010 but broke upwards to a new 32-year high yesterday. A clear downward dynamic would now be required to check potential for additional upside.

UK traded cocoa found support near £1800 from November, pushed back above the 200-day MA in late January and is currently rallying towards the July peak near $2600. A sustained move below £2100 would now be required to question potential for some additional upside.

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