Jim O'Neill on "The Growth Map: Economic Opportunities in the BRICs and Beyond"
Comment of the Day

December 19 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Jim O'Neill on "The Growth Map: Economic Opportunities in the BRICs and Beyond"

A book with the title above was published this month by the Goldman Sachs economist. Here is a sample of his comments, reported by Jeff Sommer for The New York Times:
In it, he says that Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as - Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey - are economic powerhouses and should no longer be called emerging markets. He prefers the term "growth markets" for them, a name that may help investors "to understand the scale of the opportunity here, and for policy makers to grasp what is changing in the world."

All these countries, he says, enjoy "largely sound government debt and deficit positions, robust trading networks and huge numbers of people all moving steadily up the economic ladder." Their governance in some cases may leave much to be desired - he cited Russia as an example - but their economies compare favorably in many respects with the developed nations that are having so much trouble these days.

The eclectic countries comprising the growth markets all have relatively large populations tilted toward a young demographic - South Korea is the smallest but most prosperous of the group, per capita - and have already begun to grow at a very rapid pace.

The growth of China, the economic heavyweight among them, is likely to slow from an annual rate in the double digits to 7 or 8 percent, he said. At that pace, China should surpass the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027, which, he said, was a very conservative estimate.

He acknowledges that Brazil, India, Russia and China have relatively little in common. That's one reason, he says, that they are unlikely to be an enduring and cohesive political bloc. But what they shared in 2001, he says, "was that they all appeared increasingly eager to engage on the global stage," and each, he says, has actually prospered mightily from world trade over the last decade.

In the intervening years, they have accounted for roughly a third of the growth of the world economy. To put that into perspective, he says, their combined increase in G.D.P. was "more than twice that of the United States, and it was equivalent to the creation of another new Japan plus one Germany, or five United Kingdoms."

In the last year alone, he says, the economies of the four BRIC countries have almost expanded enough to "add another Italy" to the size of the world economy. And barring disasters, he says, this kind of growth is likely to continue.

As for the United States, whose strongest rising export markets are China, Brazil and Mexico, he says, "this is a fantastic opportunity" to help re-engineer the economy.

David Fuller's view This is a familiar subject for veteran subscribers because most of the growth economies are among our favoured secular themes. However, monetary policy and issues of governance within the individual countries will be huge influences on stock market performance.

For instance, tighter monetary policy has been a strong headwind in 2011 for the economies and stock markets of Brazil, China (for even longer), India (in particular) and many other growth economies, including the ASEAN sector. However, this is beginning to change as Brazil has led a trend towards easier monetary policy and this is reflected in its relative performance since August.

Governance is an extremely important variable in the eyes of international investors. If asked to choose one or two words to describe governance in India during the last two years, corruption and ineptitude spring to mind. The only silver lining - important in democracies - is the level of public outrage expressed largely by India's emerging middleclass. This will become a catalyst for positive change.

Russia's governance, not least regarding the rights of minority shareholders, has long been a source of concern for Fullermoney. Recent political developments provide additional reasons for concern, although the middleclass protests are hopefully a long-term catalyst for democratic change.

As we approach 2012, investors' expectations regarding growth economies are subdued due to poor performance in 2011, ASEAN aside, and anxiety over the Eurozone's apparent economic conundrum remains high. Low expectations are often a precursor for pleasant surprises in terms of performance and there is a reasonable chance that more accommodative monetary policies in the growth economies will revive GDP growth by the second half of 2012. However, this assumes that a destabilising collapse of the euro is avoided and that remains an uncomfortably high risk.

Meanwhile, the best stock market performances are still coming from the world's corporate Autonomies - the big, successful multinational companies which continue to benefit from globalisation. A number of these are also Dividend Aristocrats. Subscribers holding some of these relative strength standouts should monitor trend consistency because nothing outperforms indefinitely. Danger signs are: 1) upside accelerations relative to their rising MAs; 2) breaks beneath the MAs which are not quickly reversed.

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