John Husselbee: The week that was
So, where does this leave us? The ability of the US to stimulate the economy through further fiscal spending is surely limited now and any further boost to growth will have to be delivered via the Federal Reserve in the form of more quantitative easing. Indeed, Ben Bernanke, the Governor of the Federal Reserve, announced earlier in the week that interest rates would remain at zero until 2013. This announcement may result in higher inflation with US unable to raise the cost of borrowing for fear of crippling their economy. We do not subscribe to the double dip recession theory despite recent events and believe that very little has actually changed. Our core scenario remains that developed economies plod along on with anaemic growth for the foreseeable future, with drivers of the global growth to be found in the emerging economies, who seem to be getting on top of their inflationary issues. We believe the pitiful coupons and as such returns on US Treasury bonds will encourage more investors to look elsewhere for returns in excess of inflation. Good quality high yielding equities to us are the obvious choice. In stark contrast to the balance sheet of the UK or US government, corporation's finances are in great health and we believe they shall be able to continue to grow their already attractive dividends over time. The equity markets still offer the best long term returns and this week we have taken the opportunity to buy at discounted prices. Once the focus moves away from economies and back to the prospect of companies, we are confident that markets will begin to recover fairly swiftly.
David Fuller's view My impression is that more economists than investment managers expect a US double-dip recession. The economic data, including leading indicators, has mostly deteriorated ever since crude oil and many other commodities spiked higher earlier this year. Today's US data was mixed with retail sales improving but perhaps more importantly, consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level since 1980.
The double-dip - or not - question is too close to call in my opinion and the result may depend on a statistical slight of hand. Consequently, while the reported result may seem like a minor issue, many stock market historians would disagree.
They will point out that when US GDP is still growing, stock market corrections are mostly confined to a 10 to 15 percent range for the S&P 500 Index. Other stock markets, being smaller, will usually have somewhat larger corrections.
However, during recessions the S&P's corrections are usually larger, becoming statistical bear markets in the 25 to 35 percent range, and sometimes more as we last saw in 2008/9. To date, the S&P 500 has fallen just under 20 percent.
If the US does avoid a double-dip recession, it will do so with the help of demand from Asia's growth economies.
Stock market weakness is creating a buying opportunity and Eoin provides another interesting share review below. My preference is for high-yielding, successful multinational companies leveraged to Asian-led growth.