Bring your oxygen tanks. Before we get to Happy Valley, the mountain we have to climb is much taller than it looks.

When I try to talk about old crop corn everyone tunes out as they believe there will be so much early new crop corn harvested this year that the situation will resolve itself. As far as I know the Deep South and the Mid South are planting 350 extra acres this year. If all goes well that is 50 million bushels of August corn available over and above a year ago. I simply do not believe that there will be a meaningful amount of August corn harvested in the Midwest. There may be plenty of mid September or even early September corn, but as I will try to explain, the big hole in the balance sheet will occur much earlier.

David Fuller's view If anyone knows more about corn than John Macintosh, I have not heard of him.

What he is saying, and if you are not interested in all the supporting arguments turn to the penultimate paragraph, is that the US is likely to run out of old crop corn (weekly & daily) before the new crop becomes available. If so, the consequence could be a sharp spike in prices between June and August. Currently, I would expect some consolidation of gains seen in the last three days because corn is back to a region of prior resistance and many people in this market will be monitoring the new crop currently being sown.