"To lose one parent may be regarded as misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being Ernest.

I would like to paraphrase the above; "To run out of corn may be regarded as a misfortune, to run out of both corn and soybeans looks like carelessness". Last September I accused the USDA of deliberately misleading the market when they emphatically stated that there was no comingling of old crop corn in the September stocks. By doing so they managed to offset their overstatement of the 2009 crop. I have also been insistent that they are still overestimating the 2010 crop as well. It is well known that the 2010 crop is of excellent quality and of higher feed value than normal, so the bullish surprise in the March 1 stocks report strongly suggests a sharply lower carryin than the official number.

David Fuller's view Veteran subscribers may recall the accuracy of John Macintosh's earlier reports. In addition to these latest comments, in which he remains bullish of nearby (old crop) corn (weekly & daily and soybeans (weekly & daily), John says that weather in the corn belt is currently cold and wet, and likely to remain this way for most of the next three weeks.

This is causing late plantings which, short of a mid-summer drought, would ensure a late harvest. Since the US consumes about 250m bushels of corn a week, if the new crop (September) is one week late, the US will run out of supplies. Consequently rationing may be a necessary option. That would be almost unprecedented in the modern era.

Corn remains the relative strength leader and has the most consistent uptrend, but there is some psychological and lateral resistance near $8. Soybeans remain rangebound but the base formation can still support higher levels.