Leadership and new highs
Eoin Treacy's view This
has been a harrowing couple of months for investors with rampant fear of a double
dip recession in the USA combined with a deepening of the Eurozone's crisis.
Stock market declines have reflected this heightened sense of anxiety. Banking
sectors in particular have been a focus of investor ire. Oil and staple food
prices remain uncomfortably high.
Speculation
continues to mount on whether there will be another round of quantitative easing
by the Fed. Investors are waiting for President Obama's "jobs speech"
and what that will bring in terms of a boost for the economy. The Swiss National
Bank is printing Francs. The Bank of England has not ruled out a fresh round
of quantitative easing. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) took
a step closer to becoming a reality today. When in place, the balance of probabilities
is that it will eventually be able to issue bonds backed by the balance sheets
of all the Eurozone's countries.
The majority
of stock market indices have at least lost downward momentum. A number have
posted an incremental progression of higher reaction lows since mid August as
they unwind their respective oversold conditions. Indonesia, Thailand and the
Philippines are the only indices to have held above their respective 200-day
MAs. Time is still a requirement for the majority of indices to demonstrate
that they have found medium-term lows rather than simply paused in the course
of a larger decline.
The majority
of commentary has focused on the problems. The loss of uptrend consistency by
so many shares is definitely a cause for concern. This week, I would rather
focus on some of the shares that still exhibit consistent uptrends. As we say
at The Chart Seminar "A consistent trend is a trend in motion" meaning
that provided a trend remains consistent it should continue to trend and range
higher in an identifiable and orderly manner. Changes to the progression suggest
an altered relationship between supply and demand.
In a review of the constituents of the S&P100 Index in Comment of the Day
on August
26th I mentioned that McDonalds and Southern Corp were the only two shares
to have posted new highs since early August. As a starting point to today's
piece I used the Chart Library Filter system to identify US companies that have
hit new highs in the last 5 days. Here is a link
to the online interactive tutorial on how to use the High/Low filter.
I filtered
the constituents of the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite for companies that had
made at least a new 3-month high or low in the last 5 days. In this sample,
118 companies have posted a least a new 3-month high. 27 have posted new All
Time Highs.
The first
clear standout is the relative and absolute performance of gold miners. Royal
Gold has been accelerating higher and is now susceptible to a reversion
towards the mean represented by the 200-day MA. Yamana
Gold completed a lengthy consolidation 4 weeks ago and a sustained move
below $14 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Newmont
Mining, Kinross Mining Corp, Cia
de Minas Buenaventura and Agnico-Eagle
Mines have all hit at least new 6-month highs in the last few days. Barrick
Gold hit new 3-month highs. Among silver miners, Silver
Wheaton, Coeur d'Alene and Silver
Standard Resources have all hit new 3-month highs.
Gold
mines were among the best performing shares following the late 2008 stock market
rout. They moved to positions of underperformance as the wider stock market
recovered from March 2009. It is noteworthy that gold mines again occupy positions
of outperformance because they acted as such a good lead indicator of stock
market activity previously.
Coca
Cola is a Dividend Aristocrat and yields 2.62%. It hit at least a new 3-year
high last week and remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. A sustained
move below $65 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for
additional upside. The AmBev ADR, which
is the sole distributor of Pepsi products in Brazil, has a similar chart pattern.
National Beverage Corp continues to post
a consistent progression of higher major reaction lows and has found support
in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions since late 2008. A sustained
move below $14 would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential.
In the
food sector, dividend aristocrat McDonalds
yields 2.75% but did not make it onto the above list because it hit a new high
more than 5 days ago and subsequently pulled back slightly. It remains in a
consistent medium-term uptrend and a sustained move below $80 would be required
to question upside potential. Arcos Dorados
Holdings is on the list. It is the largest franchiser of McDonalds' restaurants
in the world, concentrating on Latin America. The share has only been trading
for a relatively short time but its recent chart pattern is similar to McDonalds'.
Diamond Foods closed its overextension
relative to the 200-day MA in early August but has subsequently rebounded strongly
to post a new high last week. Some consolidation near current levels appears
likely but a sustained move below $65 would be required to question medium-term
upside potential.
In the
automotive parts sector O'Reilly Automotive
remains a totem. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA five weeks
ago and rebounded impressively. A sustained move below $60 would now be required
to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Autozone
has performed even more impressively and also found support in the region of
its MA in August.
In the
pharmaceuticals sector Bristol Myer Squibb
continues to trend steadily higher. It posted a new 3-year high last week and
a sustained break of the progression of higher reaction lows would be required
to question medium-term upside potential. Akorn
is now somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day MA as it tests the area
of the 2007 peak. The progression of higher reaction lows would need to be broken,
on a sustained basis, to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
Biotechnology companies Alexion Pharmaceuticals
and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals have both
rallied impressively and while overextended relative to their respective 200-day
MAs clear downward dynamics would be required to signal supply is returning
to dominance.
In the
Gas Distribution sector WGL Holdings,
Delta Natural Resources and RGC
Resources have all bounced impressively over the last month to post new
all time highs. Some consolidation of recent gains appears likely but sustained
moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term
upside potential.
In the
technology sector, Apple, IBM
and Amazon did not appear in the above
report but they all remain above their respective 200-day MAs and appear more
likely than not to lead in a recovery scenario.