Leading momentum plays in stock markets
David Fuller's view A
premise of mine over many decades, which veteran subscribers will recall, is
that when a multi-month stock market correction is nearing completion, many
of the best performing stocks over the next few months to follow will be those
which reach new highs before the main indices.
To view
these today, I used the Library's 'Filter' function for the UK stock market,
selected the FTSE All Share constituents for broad coverage of both big and
medium-cap companies including investment trusts, and set the parameters for
'All-Time Highs' in the last 5 days. It took less than a minute and produced
this list
of 39 new all-time highs for UK shares (access requires subscription
registration) from Aberdeen
Asian Income Fund Ltd to Weir Group.
You
can easily do this yourself by logging on to the Fullermoney Chart Library and
using the 'Filter' function in the toolbar. Having clicked on 'Filter', you
will then see 'Select Filter' in the turquoise bar. Click on 'High/Low Filter',
then select your 'Market Section' of interest. Moving to the right, I opted
for the 'All Time' period and 'High' in the next box, and then clicked on 'Run'.
The list will appear and you can click through the shares of interest.
If you
do not want to use the Filter, just click on the Library's dropdown menu and
select 'International Equity Library' which is the second listing down. You
will then see a page of 51 stock market indices. Click on any of those and you
will see a list of constituents, which you can scroll through.
Returning
to the UK list of All-Time Highs above, inevitably, many of these stocks or
ITs will look at least temporarily overextended. Yes, because they have momentum
and are outperforming. However their overall trends will also be consistent
relative to most underperformers. Consequently, many of them are likely remain
fashionable for some time.
They
could also easily experience temporary pullbacks if/when the overall market
reacts, creating potential entry points. In that event, I would continue to
give the upside the benefit of the doubt, provided in this instance that the
June lows, or any other logical technical level of interest to you continues
to hold. Otherwise, I would only be fearful of these momentum shares if their
uptrends have gone parabolic, as that would indicate a Type-1 trend ending as
taught at The Chart Seminar.
Investors
interested in the UK stock market can quickly click through charts for the 39
companies in the list above. Just click on a share's name and the chart will
pop up. For overall perspective, I prefer to look at weekly candlesticks with
a 200-day moving average which you can also select.
Using
the same Filter procedure above, I have also produced links to lists of all-time
highs for the S&P 500 Index. Coincidentally, it too has produced a list
of 39
companies, from Allergan to
Yum! Brands.
Subscribers who have not previously used the Library's Filter, but would like
to, may wish see if they can reconstruct the two lists above, following my instructions
above or Eoin's separate notes which can be accessed in the Library. Once you
are able to do this, you can experiment with filters created to your specifications
for any of the 51 separate index constituents provided
A similar
filter for Australia's AS51 produced only 1 new all-time high in the last few
days - Invocare (I hope there is
not a message in that) which happens to yield over 5 percent.