"With higher incomes and wealth and expectations, it seems to me that demand ought to do something," Case, co-creator of the price index, said in a telephone interview. "There might be a reasonable housing market this spring."

Lennar is counting on it. Regulatory filings show that the Miami-based homebuilder, the third-largest in the U.S. by revenue, has about a quarter of its $626 million of joint venture investments in Haddad's master-planned sites at Newhall Ranch north of Los Angeles, the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Orange County and Hunters Point and Treasure Island, both former U.S. Navy bases in San Francisco.

"Over the past five years we've taken a lot of pain on some of these ventures," Lennar Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said during a Jan. 11 conference call, after reporting the company's first annual profit since 2006. "As we come out of 2010, we are getting better positioned to reap some benefits from some of those deals."

Eoin Treacy's view The US housing industry has been a focus of investor ire for the last few years. The price of residential real estate and the pace of foreclosures remain a source of anxiety for many people. The continued high unemployment rate is also contributing to a deep sense of pessimism towards the housing market.

Many home builders topped out in 2005 which was well ahead of the wider market. The majority remain in base formations that are moving into their fourth year. However there are a relatively small number exhibiting relative strength and breaking upwards.

NVR remains the sector's clear leader although it does not have a particularly consistent chart pattern. It rallied impressively from early December to test the $800 level and is now consolidating that advance. A sustained move back below $700 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Brookfield Homes broke out of its base earlier this month and a sustained move back below $12 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Lennar Homes is currently testing the upper side of its base and the April high. A sustained move back below $20 would now be required to hinder potential for a successful upward break. Meritage Homes has a similar patterns.

Toll Brothers is rallying towards the upper side of its base but will need to sustain a move above $24 to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance. D.R. Horton, Ryland Group and KB Home have relatively similar chart patterns.