"Even in the unlikely scenario that Japan's nuclear capacity remains offline it would only temporarily reduce the global LNG surplus we forecast, not eradicate it," Hubbard said.

Japan, the world's third-largest energy user, is seeking alternatives to nuclear power after the March 11 quake forced the shutdown of 11 reactors. The nation consumed 35 percent of the world's LNG in 2009, more than any other country, according to BP Plc.
Global production capacity of LNG may rise to 302 million tons a year in 2015 from 227 million tons last year, Morgan Stanley said. New supply may come this year from Qatar, Angola, Algeria and Nigeria.

Qatargas 3 and 4 ventures may add 15.6 million tons this year, and about 9.1 million tons of capacity that was offline for "unexpected" maintenance last summer may start this summer boosting potential output by 46 percent to 76.5 million tons, Morgan Stanley said.

Eoin Treacy's view LNG is the most logical substitute fuel for Japan's economy following the shutdown of some of its nuclear capacity. The commodity remains competitively priced, Japan is already a major consumer and supply is available. Qatar, from which much of this additional supply will be sourced has been a regional leader in the Middle East and has been less affected than other markets by the unrest. It bounced last week from the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below 7500 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Given increased demand for LNG cargoes for the Japanese market, LNG tankers companies may benefit from additional demand. (Also see Comment of the Day on February 18th).

Teekay LNG (USA) remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and found support this week above the 200-day MA. It currently yields 6.58% and a sustained move below $35 would be required to question the consistency of the uptrend.

Golar (Norway) encountered resistance near NOK20 from January but has held the majority of its gain and rallied to retest the high this week. While still overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a sustained move bellow NOK17 would be required to indicate a swifter reversionary process is underway.

Exmar (Belgium) yields 6.71% and continues to rally from the lower side of its developing base. It has been ranging below €6 since early February but a downward dynamic would be required to check potential for a successful break above that level.