Lonmin halts South African output after violence
Comment of the Day

August 15 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Lonmin halts South African output after violence

This transcript of a Mineweb.com podcast may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
ALEC HOGG: Barnard, from your perspective, certainly the reports suggest that what happened at Impala Platinum is now just being repeated at Lonmin. Are you reading that as well? Is it that rock-drill operators are at the centre of it?

BARNARD MOKWENA: Yes, we know that people who marched on Friday are rock-drill operators. There are lots of similarities in terms of approach, intent and the level of violence. So yes, it's almost a duplicate of what happened at Impala.

ALEC HOGG: And what are you doing about all this?

BARNARD MOKWENA: Well, our position is very simple. Just as much as we are willing to talk to employees, groups of employees, we have structures that have worked for many years. We have employees who are represented by unions where often we do differ. However we engage and let's settle, men. This time around we cannot understand how groups of employees or rock-drill operators could disregard every law in this country, the Labour Relations Act, practices that are common that are known by everybody, to opt for a programme of action that results in killing so many people.

Eoin Treacy's view My view – The tragic events in South Africa highlight the reliance of the global platinum market on that country's supply. A power outage in 2008 resulted in a major mine shutdown and prices surged. The current labour disputes have not, so far, put undue pressure on supply but have the capacity to do so should labour disputes spread to additional mines.

An additional concern on the supply front is that due to the cost of production any significant decline in prices is likely to result in supply destruction as mines are forced to close. On the demand front, platinum's use in catalytic converters has been soft due to the slowing global economic environment. As a result the relative price of the metal compared to gold is at its lowest level in decades.

Against this background, platinum prices remain finely balanced as they range in the region of $1400. As this congestion area persists the potential for an emphatic breakout, in either direction, is increasing. The majority of dynamics within the range have been upwards which suggest accumulation on behalf of bulls. However a sustained move above $1500 will be required to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the very short term.

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