Lost Decade for Bonds Looms With Growing Return for Equities
Comment of the Day

June 24 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Lost Decade for Bonds Looms With Growing Return for Equities

Here is a brief section of this interesting article from Bloomberg
With consumer confidence approaching a six-year high, housing starts increasing to 2008 levels and corporate profits double what they were five years ago, investors withdrew $9.1 billion from fixed-income mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the week ended June 5, the second-highest total in more than 20 years, according to Denver-based Lipper.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the most-active underwriter of corporate bonds since 2007, earlier this month joined Barclays Plc, Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in recommending stocks over most bonds as equity returns outpace company debt by the most since at least 1997.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate & High Yield Index's 2.6 percent loss this year compares with a 12.8 percent gain for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), including reinvested dividends. Treasuries have lost 2.8 percent, according to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index (BUSY).

David Fuller's view We can expect plenty of volatility over the next few months from both bonds and stock markets, as investors react to changing expectations regarding quantitative easing (QE), US and also global economic data, and momentum moves in both fixed interest and equity sectors.

I maintain that medium to longer-term risks are now greater in bonds than stocks, although the latter will generally remain much more volatile. Meanwhile, stock markets around the globe are heading towards another buying opportunity. Nevertheless, before participating I would prefer to see more oversold conditions, including a VIX Index (weekly & daily) which could easily rise another 20 points. I would also expect a break beneath the S&P's 200-day MA which will probably be closer to what we saw in 2010 and 2011, rather than the smaller breaches in 2012. Additionally, a marked deterioration in investor sentiment would provide further evidence that a sustainable low was at hand.

I would also look for some volatile two-way churning, as we sometimes see near important market lows. This would suggest that demand was returning beyond just temporary short covering. The latter is usually characterised by sudden, sharp bounces which do not last for more than a few days. Lastly, Mr Bernanke could boost stock markets once again, although he is most likely hoping that the next significant rally occurs on bullish expectations rather than more QE, the latter having become more controversial in recent months.

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