Lumber
Comment of the Day

March 25 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Lumber

Eoin Treacy's view
Lumber - Most commentary on the opportunities presented by the Japan earthquake / tsunami have focused on iron-ore, coal, LNG and nuclear safety. There is also likely to be an increase in demand for timber as rebuilding takes place.

Lumber prices have been ranging mostly above $300 since December in a relatively gradual process of mean reversion. A sustained move below the MA, currently near $280 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Timber shares such as Rayonier, West Fraser Timber and Weyerhaeuser have been among the best performers and are now somewhat overextended relative to their respective MAs. Potlatch, Sino-Forest and Plum Creek Timber have all recently found support in the region of their 200-day MAs and appear to offer catch up potential.

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