Lumber
Eoin Treacy's view
Lumber - Most commentary on the opportunities presented
by the Japan earthquake / tsunami have focused on iron-ore, coal, LNG and nuclear
safety. There is also likely to be an increase in demand for timber as rebuilding
takes place.
Lumber
prices have been ranging mostly above $300 since December in a relatively gradual
process of mean reversion. A sustained move below the MA, currently near $280
would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
Timber
shares such as Rayonier, West
Fraser Timber and Weyerhaeuser have
been among the best performers and are now somewhat overextended relative to
their respective MAs. Potlatch, Sino-Forest
and Plum Creek Timber have all recently
found support in the region of their 200-day MAs and appear to offer catch up
potential.