Market outlook
David Fuller's view
I was planning to do a lengthy chart review today but
have delayed it a little longer as I ponder an answer to my question above.
I have also discussed this in the Audio, in somewhat greater detail than I can
cover quickly in written copy but here are some of the salient points, as I
see it.
Global
stock markets became overbought in mid-April, so they were vulnerable to a reaction
as mentioned at the time. They were then hit sequentially with the SEC's indictment
of Goldman Sachs for "fraudulent misconduct", the more serious issue
of Southern Europe's spiraling government bond yields and Wall Street's sudden
and mysterious meltdown on May 6th.
This
triple waterfall of events undermined confidence and sent investors scrambling
out of stock markets and most commodities, and into safety bunker positions
in USD, Treasuries and gold. The selling in stock markets and commodities has
done more technical damage than the previous correction which ended in early
February. It also looks at least temporarily climactic but if the cyclical uptrends
for stock markets and industrial commodities are to be resumed anytime soon,
this is now for the bulls to prove.
Wall
Street's action (S&P weekly &
daily) is likely to provide the most
conclusive answers.