Mean reversion among the Autonomies
Comment of the Day

April 05 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Mean reversion among the Autonomies

Eoin Treacy's view There has been a distinct air of risk-off to activity in the markets this week, which has been largely absent until February. The bulk of selling pressure has been concentrated in the resources sector where individual commodities and commodity-related stock markets have pulled back sharply. European stock markets have also experienced a sharp pullback this week. Government bond futures prices also rallied this week to break more than six-month progressions of lower rally highs. Gilts offer a good example of this.

Wall Street, represented by the S&P500 Index, has been particularly noteworthy as a holdout since January, while European indices have so far experienced the deepest corrections. However, the S&P500 formed an outside week by today's close which means that while it hit a new recovery high intraweek it is closing near last week's lows. This negative action probably signals a quickening in the pace of mean reversion. The 200-day MA is currently in the region of 1450.

A considerable number of the Autonomies have become quite overextended relative to their respective 200-day MAs over the last few months and the potential for mean reversion has increased substantially. Google, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Biogen, Pfizer, Anheuser Busch, Diageo, SAB Miller, Heineken, Nestle, Unilever, Mondelez International and Reckitt Benckiser are among some of the most overextended relative to their trend means and therefore some of the most at risk of a reversion.

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