Mean reversion among the Autonomies
Eoin Treacy's view There has been a distinct air of risk-off to activity in the markets this week,
which has been largely absent until February. The bulk of selling pressure has
been concentrated in the resources sector where individual commodities and commodity-related
stock markets have pulled back sharply. European stock markets have also experienced
a sharp pullback this week. Government bond futures prices also rallied this
week to break more than six-month progressions of lower rally highs. Gilts
offer a good example of this.
Wall
Street, represented by the S&P500 Index, has been particularly noteworthy
as a holdout since January, while European indices have so far experienced the
deepest corrections. However, the S&P500
formed an outside week by today's close which means that while it hit a new
recovery high intraweek it is closing near last week's lows. This negative action
probably signals a quickening in the pace of mean reversion. The 200-day MA
is currently in the region of 1450.
A
considerable number of the Autonomies have become quite overextended relative
to their respective 200-day MAs over the last few months and the potential for
mean reversion has increased substantially. Google,
Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson
& Johnson, Biogen,
Pfizer, Anheuser
Busch, Diageo, SAB
Miller, Heineken, Nestle,
Unilever, Mondelez
International and Reckitt Benckiser
are among some of the most overextended relative to their trend means and therefore
some of the most at risk of a reversion.