Mean reversion amongst Japan's stock market leaders
Eoin Treacy's view The
adoption of an inflation target by the Bank of Japan earlier this year initiated
some much needed Yen weakness against a host of currencies. However this has
been resisted at every turn by the governor of the Bank of Japan. While the
stock market has pulled back sharply over the last few weeks, the Yen
has been comparatively steady in the region of ¥80 when compared to the
US Dollar. A sustained move below ¥79 would be required to question medium-term
scope for additional Dollar outperformance. I last reviewed Japan's upside leaders
in Comment of the Day on March
9th . Following a volatile period for the stock market I thought it would
be opportune to revisit those shares. Also see David's piece on Japan yesterday.
In
the automotive sector Isuzu Motors,
Hino Motors, Unipres
Corp and Kyokuto Kaihatsu had become
quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA by early April but pulled back
over the last month and have returned to test the region of their respective
trend means. Provided they find support in the current area the benefit of the
doubt can continue to be given the medium-term upside. Autobacs
Seven has outperformed somewhat while Press
Kogyo has overshot somewhat. Mitsuba
Corp failed to sustain the breakout to new four-year highs and has fallen
abruptly to test the lower side of the more than year long range.
In
the Distribution/Wholesale Meiwa Corp
more than quadrupled between January and late April and is now unwinding the
extreme overbought condition. Emori &
Co Ltd, Kagome, Yamazan
and Maruka Machinery have either unwound
overextensions relative to the 200-day MA or are in the process of doing so.
Spk
Corp failed to hold the breakout from the lengthy base formation. It will
need to find support soon if the medium-term progression of higher reaction
lows is to be sustained. Nakayamafuku
failed to hold the breakout to new highs and has pulled back into the underlying
base.
In
the consumer sector, and in common with a number of the companies we describe
as Autonomies, Pan Asian Dividend Aristocrat Uni-Charm
(0.76%), has become quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA and is susceptible
to mean reversion. Japan Tobacco is also
a Pan Asian Dividend Aristocrat (2.89%) and has almost completed a reversion
towards the mean. Chiyoda Co. (2.90%)
has rallied impressively over the last couple of months but now appears to be
in the process of unwinding the short-term overbought condition. Nikon
Corp has been consolidating mostly below ¥2500 since late March and
a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term
upside potential. Astellas Pharma
and Hitachi have both returned to test
the region of their respective 200-day MAs.
The
above shares represent some of the Japanese market's relative strength leaders.
A significant number have returned to potential areas of support following a
more than month long reversion. This represents where demand will need to return
to dominance if the consistency of medium-term uptrends is to remain intact.