Merkel Shifts Her Stance as Crisis Destroys Taboos
German bonds fell as European stocks and debt from cash- strapped nations such as Spain and Italy rallied today on speculation policy makers will step up crisis-fighting efforts.
Her emphasis on the cost to Germany, the world's second- biggest exporter after China, of failing to contain the crisis that began in Greece in 2009 underscores the risk to Europe's largest economy and her chances of re-election in 2013.
"Whatever Germany offers to help, we will offer, whether through private business or through political and administrative capabilities, in the spirit of friendship, in the spirit of partnership and not in the sense of imposing something," Merkel said today in a speech to German industrialists.
Eoin Treacy's view At
this stage the problems in the Eurozone are fairly well understood by most market
participants. The productivity gap between the centre and the periphery, deficit
versus surplus counties, Greek sovereign Debt/GDP ratios in the stratosphere,
over exposure of the core's banks to the periphery's debt and the absence of
a common fiscal policy within a monetary union are all important aspects of
this crisis. There has been little focus on solutions primarily because the
Eurozone has proven inept in fostering a positive attitude towards its ability
to deal with this crisis. However, that does not preclude the possibility that
a coherent solution will be found.
The primary
question is whether Germany would be better off inside or outside the Euro?
Peripheral countries benefitted from the creation of the Euro because their
funding costs dropped to historic lows. The fact that they subsequently failed
to invest their borrowings prudently is part of the reason this crisis evolved.
Germany, as the Eurozone's largest economy, benefitted enormously from the single
market. Its much vaunted export sector is primarily focused on the Eurozone
and would suffer terribly if the country were to dispense with the currency.
Therefore while the electorate voice concerns about funding bailouts, corporate
and political Germany are wholehearted supporters of the Euro.
The odds
are strongly in favour of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) being
passed into law by the end of next month. In addition, there have been suggestions
that the European Stability Mechanism's implementation will be brought forward
from 2013. There is talk of leveraging the size and remit of the EFSF. Politicians
have stepped up attempts to improve confidence in their willingness to support
the Eurozone project. So far, willingness rather than ability has been the primary
hindrance to improving confidence. Europe is capable of dealing with this crisis,
but it needs to take substantive action to convince investors of this.
The DAX
Index continues to find support in the region of 5000 and has rallied more than
10% in the last 3 days. A type-2 bottom
may be forming with a characteristic loss of momentum, failed downside breaks
and the progression of lower highs is now being pressured. A successful push
above 5700 may initiate a broader based short covering rally and suggest a medium-term
rather than short-term low has been reached.
The EuroBund
contract continues to hold its progression of higher reaction lows but has lost
momentum and is overextended relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move below
135 would be a major trend inconsistency and would likely confirm a peak of
at least near-term significance has been reached.
The US
Dollar has rallied impressively against the Euro over the last month but
has lost momentum somewhat. The potential for an additional short-term Euro
rally has increased but a sustained move above $1.40 would be required
to check medium-term scope for additional downside.
The Dow
Jones Euro STOXX Banks Index pushed above 105 today
which is an area I have spoken of as an important psychological barrier. It
has now broken the persistent progression of lower rally highs but will need
to continue to hold above 100 if potential for additional short-term upside
is to be given the benefit of the doubt.
The above
charts suggest at least a moderation of bearish sentiment towards the Eurozone.