Mid-Year 2011 Equity Outlook: Equities Remain Best Game in Town
David Fuller's view For yield, I think equities are the asset
of choice and you can get growth as well. However for consistency of performance,
gold is the runaway winner over the last decade, in tandem with its high-beta
proxy, silver. For evidence, here is the S&P 500 Index divided by silver
(historic
& 20-year). Here is the
more frequently shown S&P Index divided by gold (historic
& 20-year).
These
charts show that gold and silver are still a good hold for investors. However,
the history also warns us not to embrace them for all time with a religious
fervour. There are also long periods when the monetary metals underperform.
You have seen it before and you will see it again, probably when real interest
rates are positive (above inflation rates) for a sustained period.
All markets
move in broad cycles of uncertain duration and degree. Investment is a fashion
game. The more people buy gold, silver and other precious metals over the next
few years, the greater the amount of supply in fickle hands - their's or their
heir's, destined to be sold at a later date, driving prices lower in the process.