Middle-Aged Spread and Vanishing Youth
First, in the coming decade, UN statistics indicate the young (0-20 years) will contract by 34m (3%) - so firms catering to Asia's kids and teens are likely face challenging times. They are likely relying for growth on rising adoption rates - on junk food, video games, social networking, schools and related supplies, kids' apparel, etc. Good luck. On the other hand, securing college admission should be easier, reducing the enormous pressure on the region's over-stressed kids.
Second, the youth population (in their 20s), having risen 54m (11%) in the past ten years, is going to be flat in the next ten. Ex-India, these youth numbers rose 18m in the past decade, in the coming decade they will likely fall 21m. This is likely to lead to higher wages in the manufacturing sector. India is likely to take a lead in manufacturing, assuming improvements in infrastructure and labor reforms. For new entrants, finding a job will be a lot easier. This demographic spends a lot of time and money on attracting the opposite sex, preening, marriage, motorcycles, starter cars, home rentals, tech gizmos, fashion apparel, and finding a first job - these areas are going to be challenging for firms.
Third, there is going to be an explosion in the number of people in their 50s - peak earning power years in hierarchical Asia. This is a continuation of what happened in the past decade. Plutonomy/luxury products and luxury property are already huge beneficiaries of these high earning empty-nesters. They are likely to continue to prosper. The region's income inequality only reinforces this theme. This idea is better played by buying the global plutonomy brands, rather than the Asian brands, given the valuation differentials (see Figures 1 and 2). See Appendix A for stock names.
Eoin Treacy's view The global population is growing at approximately 1% a year and the global economy
is growing at approximately 3%. The world's population centres are growing considerably
faster. So what, you might say, China and India have always had considerably
larger populations than just about anywhere else so what is different this time?
China
in particular has embraced capitalism, albeit with Chinese characteristics.
India, despite bureaucratic inertia, is doing the same. Standards of economic,
civil and corporate governance are improving. For the first time in living memory,
not only are these economies expanding but a clear path of social advancement
is opening up for hundreds of millions of people. The American dream with Asian
characteristics.
As standards
of living improve per capita consumption of just about all goods and services
increase. Over the last decade China has been building cities, roads, railways,
airports, power stations, sewers, water treatment facilities and industry. China's
people have benefitted enormously from this investment and the accompanying
economic growth. The numbers of people in the middle classes has swollen considerably.
Their appetite for a higher standard of living is undiminished and has been
a boon for globally oriented companies offering goods and services previously
beyond the reach of most people.
The Performance
Filter of a selection of 16 luxury brands exhibits a high degree of commonality,
with almost all shares trending relatively consistently and finding support
in the region of their respective 200-day MAs during periods of consolidation.
Global food companies with a strong Asian presence also share this characteristic.
Nestle, Unilever, Associated British Foods, Heinz, Kraft and General Mills all
share positions of relative outperformance. Automobile manufacturers, at the
low end and high end of the spectrum are also outperforming. May of these shares
are currently somewhat overextended relative to their respective means and would
be best bought following reversions.
The emergence
of literally hundreds of millions of people with considerably more disposable
income is helping to drive bull markets for companies capable of supplying them
with what they want and need. Fullermoney identified this trend almost a decade
ago as it applied to the commodity sector. David dubbed it Supply Inelasticity
Meets Rising Demand. The same theme is now more widely evident across sectors
leveraged to the growth of the global consumer.