Mike Lenhoff: Bond markets take their cue from the developed economies, equities from the developing
My thanks
to Tony Smith of Brewin Dolphin for his colleague's astute letter.
Here is a brief sample
In this context, a dividend yield in excess of the yield on gilts is not indicative of value but of lingering economic duress. A high yield on equities and a low yield on government bonds are part of what might be expected in a world characterised by slow growth with a disinflationary, if not ultimately, deflationary tendency.
But there are two worlds out there and, for one, the relevant backdrop is not that of slow growth with a disinflation or deflationary tendency. That combination fails in representing what the developing economies are all about. Not only are the latter growing strongly but also expectations for growth are still being revised up, albeit with a few exceptions - like China where expectations have been trimmed a little after months of steady upward revision to the forecasts. For emerging Europe where the outlook remains fairly grim, forecasts for GDP growth are, nonetheless, being revised up too.
David Fuller's view This is a brilliant headline by Mike Lenhoff and one of his very best letters. Those of us who assimilate his message will be wiser for it, in my opinion.
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