Mike Lenhoff: China's surprise - a stimulus for the global economy
Comment of the Day

June 21 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Mike Lenhoff: China's surprise - a stimulus for the global economy

My thanks to Tony Smith of Brewin Dolphin Securities for his colleague's letter, which also addresses China's latest adjustment in its currency policy. Here is a brief sample
No point jumping the gun on this but we could be staring at the prospect of the 'great global stimulus'! Whatever the exchange rate adjustment, be it through a reinstatement of the managed float that was suspended some two years ago or some other mechanism, the fact is that the competitive positions of the euro and sterling have improved already relative to the dollar-bloc currencies. Any appreciation in the renminbi from here will further enhance the respective competitive positions and gradually that of the dollar itself.

David Fuller's view I do not expect China's small currency adjustment to have any impact on its trade figures with the USA or Euroland. However I expect it to generate renewed bullish interest in China's stock market (see also the technical review above).

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