Mike Lenhoff on new relative highs for mid caps
Comment of the Day

March 08 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Mike Lenhoff on new relative highs for mid caps

My thanks to Tony Smith of Brewin Dolphin for his colleague's interesting timing report. Here is the opening paragraph
Greece and sovereign debt have been receiving lots of attention but one of the more interesting and less fussed about developments is depicted in the chart, which shows the performance of the mid and small caps relative to the large caps for the US equity market. Over the past few weeks, the mid caps have shot up to new relative highs. While the small caps are not far from new relative highs, they have still risen to new relative highs for the year. These are probably the most bullish signs around for equity markets.

David Fuller's view Here are some examples, with US Index prices taken around mid-way through the trading day: the S&P Midcap 400, S&P 600 Smallcap and Russell 2000 are currently outperforming the S&P 500.

I too regard evidence of small-cap leadership as bullish. Despite some short-term overbought conditions, it is the cyclical uptrends that are being reaffirmed, not the correction. Retests of the February lows, which I do not expect, would be required to question the medium-term bullish hypothesis.

What about small-cap and mid-cap indices in other stock markets? In Germany, DAX Mid-Cap is slightly firmer than the DAX. In the UK we have the opposite, with the FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 similar, and slightly outperforming the FTSE SmallCap and FTSE AIM. This is also true for India, Australia and Japan. I do not see these latter instances of slight underperformance by mid-cap or small-cap indices as significant, since the overall action is bullish, with indices rising from the region of their 200-day moving averages over the last three to four weeks.

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