Mike Lenhoff: The Lady's not for turning and the markets think she will rule
Comment of the Day

December 05 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Mike Lenhoff: The Lady's not for turning and the markets think she will rule

My thanks to the author for his astute letter published by Brewin Dolphin. Here is an important sample:
That's because Mrs Merkel has made her mind up and, like that other lady, she's not for turning! The root of the problem needs tackling with nothing short of a transfer of fiscal sovereignty to the federal level. For Mrs Merkel, and the markets, here lies what is critical to credibly resolving the issue of eurozone debt sustainability and to ensuring budget discipline.

Mr Sarkozy has yet to be convinced. He acknowledges the need to be tough on fiscal discipline but doesn't like the idea of losing sovereignty over the budget process. Of course he has also got his eye on an election and on political rivals who do not wish to cede sovereignty in any way shape or form. So Mrs Merkel has her work cut out for her ahead of Friday's EU summit in Brussels.

She does have her allies though. Indeed, it was the Dutch who put forward the idea of commissioner for
budgetary discipline with responsibility for oversight of national budgets and powers to sanction for
breaches in complying with the rules on fiscal governance. When the Dutch Prime Minister and his Finance Minister outlined their scheme in the Financial Times several months ago it included the ultimate sanction of expulsion from the eurozone. Having seen how swiftly and ruthlessly markets can deal with wayward sovereigns, what eurozone government would wish to incur such a sanction?

Eurozone leaders know the time has come. Olli Rehn, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner could not have stated it more succinctly with his 10-day warning last week to policymakers on the need to complete and conclude the crisis response to the eurozone. It is either fiscal integration or a break-up of the Eurozone and if Mrs Merkel succeeds at Friday's EU summit meeting, much could fall into place.

David Fuller's view Play by the rules or you risk being thrown out of the club. That makes sense to me.


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