Mining South Africa: facts vs. fantasies
Comment of the Day

September 17 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Mining South Africa: facts vs. fantasies

This detailed article by Barry Sergeant for Mineweb.com paints a grim picture of South African standards of governance and may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Without an "SLP" (Social and Labour Plan), a mine in South African cannot continue in business (in theory, anyway). There are seven areas of compliance, starting with 26% equity ownership. Then there is management control, but as a seasoned mining executive asks: "where does one find the skills amongst the HDSAs to mirror the demographics of the country?" South Africa's WEF ranking for availability of scientists and engineers: 116.

Mines also have considerable problems meeting employment equity targets, where the workforce composition must be altered to meet various HDSA targets. Then there is skills development, which "costs money: the mine is expected to do the government's work". Fifth is preferential procurement: "often from inefficient suppliers, resulting in cost increases".

Sixth is enterprise development: "building brick plants, etc., just another drain on resources". And finally, socio-economic development: building schools, providing boreholes, etc. "Each of these requirements" says a mining executive, "distracts from what should be the prime focus of a mining company".

As to nationalisation of South Africa's mines, there has been much muttering from various vested interests on that topic. Julius Malema, head of the ANC Youth League, is already making mine nationalisation claims in the past tense. The issue is apparently on the agenda for an upcoming gathering, in Durban, of the ANC's top 2,000 bigwigs, plus about 800 hangers-on.

For now, South Africa's private sector continues to drag the ANC along behind it, whether the ANC, kicking and screaming, likes it or not. This week, in less than 24 hours, AngloGold Ashanti raised USD 789m in fresh equity and a similar amount in convertible bonds, due in 2013. AngloGold Ashanti, a South Africa-based transnational miner, and one of the world's biggest gold producers, was able to raise this fresh cash from global capital markets, from investors who still believe that this country has a hope.

Compare that with Eskom, South Africa's beleagured power supply parastatal, which faces a ZAR 190bn funding shortfall to the year 2017, of a total ZAR 440bn requirement. At this point, without government support, Eskom faces a sub-investment ratings grade profile. Eskom, hampered in its ability to borrow to fund its expansion plans, has suffered 16 years of poor oversight from the ANC government. Nobody has been held to account, never mind issued a palatable apology.

Eoin Treacy's view South Africa remains a resource wealthy nation and talk of nationalisation has so far been just that. The power of vested interests, attempts to curtail press freedom and declining civil governance are all concerns and represent headwinds that need to be overcome if the country is to achieve its long-term potential.

The Johannesburg All Share Index continues to range below 30,000 and has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on a number of occasions. It is currently rallying towards the upper side and a sustained move below 26,000 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The FTSE/JSE Banks Index encountered resistance in the region of the 2007 highs from March and been ranging below that level since. The clear upward dynamic three weeks ago reconfirmed support in the region of 36,500 and a sustained move below that level would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

The US Dollar continues to trend lower against the Rand and is currently testing the ZAR7 level. A clear upward dynamic is required to question scope for further downside while a sustained move above ZAR7.50 would be needed to indicate a return to medium-term dominance for the US Dollar.

Investors appear to deem the risk of resource nationalisation as low, the financial markets are demonstrating a relatively sanguine attitude to South African assets and despite concerns to the contrary the present administration have maintained the previous administration's fiscal discipline. If these factors change, they will quickly become apparent on the charts.

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