Ministers agree to give audit power to EU
EU FINANCE ministers followed a deal to open draft budgets in Brussels before parliament with an agreement to give new audit powers to Eurostat, the European Commission's statistical arm.
As economics commissioner Olli Rehn indicated, Bulgaria would be the first country to face a Eurostat audit. He said the EU executive will next month publish proposals to flesh out a call for earlier financial sanctions when the euro rulebook is strengthened.
With new sanctions a core component of the agreement made on Monday night, some EU governments are already pushing for automatic penalties to ensure adherence with the fiscal rules which underpin the currency.
"We're of the opinion that these sanctions have to kick in automatically," said Luxembourg's finance minister Luc Frieden as yesterday's meeting ended. "If they were to be subjected to a political assessment, there would be too much of a risk of some states being treated different from others."
Mr Frieden's remarks imply that prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the euro group of finance ministers, wants the removal of political discretion from a new sanctions regime.
Eoin Treacy's view Countries are being pressured to surrender
decision making powers from their national budgets. Henry Ford's words come
to mind "You can paint it any colour, so long as it is black" because
Eurozone countries, particularly those with the greatest need to stabilise their
finances, can do whatever they like so long as they close their deficits which
in effect means cutting spending and raising taxes. The need for greater alignment
in fiscal policy is essential if the Euro is going to survive and incidentally
achieves many federalist objectives without the need to put such developments
to a popular vote. Once this crisis has run its course, I suspect populations
currently reasonably accepting of the need to align fiscal policy will be more
resistant once they realise it is a permanent arrangement.
This fudging of the basic criteria needed for a currency union will remain a
long-term issue for the Euro. Despite the policy initiatives being proposed,
EU countries are not recalcitrant children but sovereign states. It appears
to be only a matter of time before some begin to assert greater independence.
I still do not see how a country can be compelled to pay sanctions levied on
it by the European Commission. What is to stop one from simply refusing and
initiating another Euro crisis? The call for the sanction process to be made
automatic and outside political influence sounds appealing but unlikely in an
EU context and even if it were automotive, how is a non-compliant or fraudulent
country going to be compelled to pay?
These are longer-term questions. The move towards greater fiscal cohesion allays
an existential question about the integrity of the Eurozone. It may not yet
survive with all its member states in tow but the balance of probabilities remain
with the currency union's continuity. The Euro
Trade Weighted Index has experienced significant technical deterioration but
has also become really quite overextended relative to its 200-day MA. Some further
downside is a possibility but the likelihood
of a technical bounce has risen substantially. However, even in such an event
some support building is probably required before significantly higher levels
can be justified.
Eurobunds have rallied for eight of the
last nine weeks but have paused below 130
for the last 10 days and are overextended relative to the 200-day moving average.
Yields have fallen precipitously to test
the psychological 2.5% and have steadied somewhat. Acceleration is a trend ending
of undetermined duration, as taught at The Chart Seminar, and while this is
the one major inconsistency currently evident on the chart, I wonder how much
higher Bund prices can go without a further significant deterioration of sentiment
towards the Eurozone's debt issues. At the very least a reversion towards the
mean has become increasingly likely.