But, moly and cobalt are going to have a future, and that future comes next month when the London Metal Exchange (LME) launches the first ever futures market for these ignored minerals. These minerals have been priced too low compared to those already traded in the futures market. The added sauce to the coming moly/cobalt price surge will be the speculators. Copper, nickel, aluminum have all been climbing despite big run ups in stores.

Eoin Treacy's view We last commented on the potential for LME minor metal futures on September 10th 2008. Increased liquidity in these commodities is to be welcomed but it remains to be seen how successful futures markets in these commodities will be.

Molybdenum attracted a great deal of attention in the middle of the last decade as the need to replace aging pipelines with corrosion proof pipes was identified. However, the market did not develop to an extent to support this bull market hypothesis at the time and the originally much lauded Molybdenum Participation Corp went bust.

Molybdenum prices crashed lower in August 2008 and found support in the region of $10 from December 2008 to May 2009. It has sustained the break above that level since and a sustained move below $11 would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Molybdenum can be found on its own but is most often produced as a by-product of copper mining. This means that the largest producers are Freeport-McMoran, Rio Tinto, Huludao Zinc, Southern Copper, China Molybdenum, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, and Antofagasta. Thompson Creek appears to be one of the only pure plays listed in North America.

Thompson Creek found support above C$3 from November 2008. It broke upwards from the six-month base in May 2009 and rallied to over C$15. It has been consolidating above C$10 since and firmed notably this week, breaking the short-term progression of lower highs. A sustained move below C$12 would now be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Here is a section relating to cobalt from an invaluable report from the commodity team at UBS which appeared in the Comment of the Day on June 16th 2008.

The largest use for cobalt is in superalloys, to make parts of gas turbines and aircraft engines. It is also used to make magnets, corrosion- and wear-resistant alloys, diamond tools and catalysts, and has a variety of chemical applications World production of cobalt has been increasing steadily since 1993. Demand is heavily influenced by general economic conditions and demand from those industries that consume large amounts of cobalt. Cobalt is produced mainly as a by-product of copper and nickel production, so production increases or decreases in line with production of these metals. The largest producers of cobalt include Zambia (21%), Australia (18%), Canada (14%) and Russia (12%), while the Democratic Republic of the Congo has the highest reserve base.

Cobalt prices bottomed out from December 2008 broke upwards from the 8-month base in July 2009. It has sustained a progression of higher lows since March last year and a sustained move below $20 would be required to question potential for further higher to lateral ranging.

Katanga Mining is one of the larger producers of the metal but prices collapsed from September 2008 and while they have improved somewhat, recovery is still uncertain given the chart action. Nevertheless, a sustained move below C60¢ would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.