While Dr. Larsen believes the suburbs are not going away, he points out that they are not like the suburbs in the 1950s. Both parents are often working and school activities are no longer at the schools but miles away at soccer fields and violin teachers. As a result, there will be opportunities for different transportation solutions. Dr. Larsen pointed to Mercedes' Boost business, where minivans drive children after school, but rather than school buses they drive them door-to-door. Parents can track their children with smart phone apps and the minivans have both a driver and a concierge on board. The driver cannot leave the minivan but the concierge can walk children to the door or their after-school activity. In his view, Americans will not give up their own cars. “Americans like to do everything in cars.” He pointed out that Americans eat in cars, drink in cars, have entertainment in cars, change clothes and have sex in cars. People often sleep in their cars and spend a lot of time waiting for their children. As Dr. Larsen points out, “Driving is really the distracting thing we do in cars.”

While it would appear that little has changed about the desire, need and use of automobiles, what has changed is the inside of the vehicle. “Screens have become more important,” said Dr. Larsen. You can tell how old a car is by its screen, or absence. Leased vehicles may be refurbished more often in order to make them appear newer. Therefore, it is likely there will be fewer new models but more new screen updates. Computer controls within vehicles will become smarter and more intrusive. You won’t be able to enter long addresses into navigation systems while you are driving, but only when you are stopped. After a vehicle has stopped, seat controls will allow you to put your seat back further, letting you work, sleep or watch television from the driver’s seat. The issue will become balancing personalization versus privacy. Sensors in smart phones and vehicles will allow insurers to monitor how you drive and whether you are using your phone while driving. As the nation develops “pay as you drive” car businesses or fuel taxing, Dr. Larsen suggests there are legal issues needing to be resolved, suggesting that the pace of these technology transitions may not be as quick as assumed, then on the other hand they could happen faster.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the full report.

Regardless of how one feels about the potential for autonomous vehicles, electric cars or even hydrogen fuel cells, consumers expect to see more technological gadgetry in their new cars, not least internet connectivity. Auto manufacturers have introduced a lot more added extras over the years with on-board self-diagnostic equipment now ubiquitous. It is reasonable to assume consumer expectations will only become more demanding as reliance on mobile interactivity becomes further ingrained in societal norms. 

Among companies related to offering an enhanced driver experience:

Sensata Technologies remains a leader in on-board sensors. The share has been trending consistently higher since 2013 and is now returning to an area of potential support in the region of the 200-day MA. It will need to find support around the trend mean if the medium-term trend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. 

Methode Electronics completed a lengthy base in 2013 and continues to hold a medium-term progression of higher reaction lows. It pulled back sharply today but a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. 

CalAmp continues to range at the upper side of a yearlong range and a sustained move below the MA would be required to question potential for a successful upward break. 

Harris Corp is consolidating in the region of the 2014 peak and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.