My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

November 16 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

AJG and JPS trades closed at net loss; platinum long increased

David Fuller's view I mistimed long trades in the USD-denominated Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (AJG LN) (weekly & daily) and the GBP-denominated JPMorgan Japanese Smaller Companies IT (JPS LN) (weekly & daily) when I mistakenly thought the dollar was likely to go up against the yen in April. AJG was rolled forward at a loss when reopened on 14th September at $9.4929 for a December position which I sold today at $10.3920, mostly offsetting the initial loss. JPS was purchased at 161.10p for a December position on 16th April and sold for a loss today at 126.57p.

Both of these funds show developing bases which should eventually support higher levels but spread-bets are not the way to play these ranging instruments due to wide spreads and contango costs. I decided to close these small positions out, despite a recent weakening in the yen which tends to support Japanese equities, because leading stock markets are clearly in a corrective phase following a very persistent run to the upside. This is unlikely to help Japan in the short term and I would not want to roll non-performing equity trades forward as the December positions expire. Prices above include all spread-bet dealing costs.

This afternoon I bought back the platinum position which was stopped out last Friday, paying less for a somewhat larger position. I paid $1660.8 for this January stake, including spread-bet dealing costs of $2. This is a risky trade at this time - catch a falling knife territory during corrections - and platinum could easily fall further during this liquidation phase. I bought because platinum had been far less overextended than leading precious metals and may have reached a level where there will be some two-way activity once again, enabling me to Baby Steps trade it, which is what I should have done in the first place.

Looking ahead, traders may wish to keep most of their powder dry, as I am doing, until this deleveraging process in commodities has run its course. That should create renewed buying opportunities in both industrial and agricultural commodities. Having recently reduced my exposure considerably, my only remaining trading positions are some small long positions in platinum and my 'stale bull' USD/JPY long which is a recovery candidate as the oversold greenback firms somewhat.



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