My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

December 07 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

Platinum long trade increased; another profit taken on T-Bond short

David Fuller's view Until today's downward dynamics precious metals had been in form, albeit on a somewhat crowded pitch. I feel that I am playing the sector reasonably conservatively by favouring platinum (weekly 10-year & daily) at this time, precisely because it is the lagging futures-traded precious metal. This will not always be the case, as you can see from the 10-year chart above and also this ratio showing the price of platinum divided by gold. At 1.2 it is trading in the lower side of its historic range. I bought more of the January contract this afternoon, paying $1728.3 and $1718.1, increasing my total position by 37 percent. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs of $2. By the end of the day this was looking like the triumph of hope over experience. I did not follow Fullermoney's longstanding advice: Buy commodities after pullbacks and sell them on strong rallies.

Today's slide in US 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures reached my preset limit order this afternoon, enabling me to profitably cover my most recent short position. I bought back a decimalised March short at 123.38 (actually two points better than my target) against my short sale at 125.40 on 4th December. This reduced my position by 50 percent and I am likely to recommence shorting if T-Bond prices steady.

Stop press: When T-bond futures fell over 2.5 points I decided to close my remaining short position in line with my Baby Steps sell-high-buy-low trading policy. I did so by repurchasing my remaining March position at 122.75 against my short sale at 127.78 on 30th November. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs.

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