My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

January 04 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

Wheat long increased and then partially stopped out; T-Bond short reopened

David Fuller's view Although yesterday was a holiday in the UK, I had my eye on the markets because I was doing some admin work. When wheat (weekly & daily) broke up out of its trading range I raise stops on my two earlier purchases and then increased the stake by 50% - chancy, yes, and I generally prefer not to pay up for commodities. I paid $8.151 for this addition position purchased on the 3rd. It looked like a mistake by the close and the upward break was not maintained today, resulting in the triggering of stops at $7.845 today, against my purchases at $7.61 and $7.50 on 14th and 16th December. I will hold on to yesterday's expensive purchase because not too much technical damage has occurred and the important USDA report is only 8 days away.

At one point yesterday 30-year T-Bond futures were quite weak. I had been hoping for a further recovery, which the pattern suggested was a possibility, so that I could resume shorting at a higher level. Not wanting to see the position run away from me, I reopened an initial short at 120.75 in the decimalised March contract. My tactic is to increase this position in the event of a further rally, and/or renewed weakness if a downward break appears more likely in the near term.

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