My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

July 20 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

Profit taken in natural gas long trade as trailing stops are triggered

David Fuller's view Today's early setback in natural gas (weekly & daily) triggered my in-the-money stops. Consequently, my soon-to-expire August positions were sold at $4.481 against my purchases at $4.359 and $4.330 on 29th June. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs.

It remains a tough, rangy, choppy, nervy, environment out there for both trading and investing. This does not mean that it is without opportunities, or too risky to touch, in my view. However, in ranging markets one has to buy low and sell high within the range, or short high and cover low. Failure to do this usually results in a position showing red ink for much of the time. It is harder to make good profits in ranging as opposed to trending markets because the risk / reward ratio is more evenly balanced. I reduce the size of my leveraged trading positions in this environment.

My investment strategy in ranging markets can most flatteringly be described as 'masterful inactivity'. I am consoled by the fact that ranging markets are eventually followed by rhythmic, consistent trends, often of lengthy medium-term duration. I am hopeful that more of today's ranges will be resolved by moves to the upside than downside. This view is not without some justification: monetary policy in various countries and regions is mostly accommodative; valuations are reasonable more often than not; corporate profits are more often rising than falling; there are more overall upward than downward trends, not least for influential Wall Street; sentiment seems more bearish than bullish and this is often a contrary indicator.

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