My personal portfolio
Comment of the Day

May 16 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio

Silver long trade reopened and then stopped out

David Fuller's view Trading remains a challenge in this often volatile environment which I attribute more to high frequency algorithmic programmes than to Greece or any other familiar problem. Nevertheless, a technically oversold market becomes an opportunity and they are now apparent in a number of commodities and stock markets. I opted for a futures-traded precious metal because they have all fallen back to lows last seen in 4Q 2011 which should offer at least temporary support despite the medium-term downward trends since last year's highs.

They have also performed like risk assets following last year's accelerated peaks in silver and gold, but are likely to become born-again safe havens at some point (see also Eoin's comments below in response to an email on gold). Meanwhile, for the first time in many years I have recently seen more bearish than bullish forecasts for gold. I consider this to be a contrary indicator.

I repurchased silver (weekly & daily), paying $27.523 for a July position, including spread-bet dealing costs, and placed a breakeven stop on seeing it 30 cents higher. That is obviously tight and therefore quite likely to be triggered if silver decides to range, as it easily could, before a meaningful rally occurs. In that event I could try to buy it back a little cheaper (Plan B).

Stop Press - My silver long was stopped out at $27.553, including spread-bet dealing costs, shortly after 8pm (BST). I have yet to buy back because precious metals came down this evening as Wall Street's rally petered out and the USD strengthened once again - further evidence that PMs are still performing like risk assets.

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