My personal portfolio
David Fuller's view Trading remains a challenge in this often volatile environment
which I attribute more to high frequency algorithmic programmes than to Greece
or any other familiar problem. Nevertheless, a technically oversold market becomes
an opportunity and they are now apparent in a number of commodities and stock
markets. I opted for a futures-traded precious metal because they have all fallen
back to lows last seen in 4Q 2011 which should offer at least temporary support
despite the medium-term downward trends since last year's highs.
They
have also performed like risk assets following last year's accelerated peaks
in silver and gold, but are likely to become born-again safe havens at some
point (see also Eoin's comments below in response to an email on gold).
Meanwhile, for the first time in many years I have recently seen more bearish
than bullish forecasts for gold. I consider this to be a contrary indicator.
I repurchased
silver (weekly & daily),
paying $27.523 for a July position, including spread-bet dealing costs, and
placed a breakeven stop on seeing it 30 cents higher. That is obviously tight
and therefore quite likely to be triggered if silver decides to range, as it
easily could, before a meaningful rally occurs. In that event I could try to
buy it back a little cheaper (Plan B).
Stop
Press - My silver long was stopped out at $27.553, including spread-bet dealing
costs, shortly after 8pm (BST). I have yet to buy back because precious metals
came down this evening as Wall Street's rally petered out and the USD strengthened
once again - further evidence that PMs are still performing like risk assets.