Climate, MJOs and Hurricanes

One climate event, even one as massive as over a million square miles of warmer ocean waters, is not the sole factor shaping the global climate. To understand the upcoming fall and winter for North America, one has to look at a number of factors shaping the climate. Basically, to understand natural climate change, you have to follow the energy.

• How much solar radiation the earth receives - The sun provides the energy that runs the weather system. Currently the sun is reaching the peak of a sunspot cycle. According to Thomas Woods, solar scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder, this supplies enough energy to temporarily raise global temperatures 0.1?C (0.2?F).

• The patterns of where the solar radiation falls or is reflected - Clouds and volcanic debris can block incoming solar radiation, changing temperatures, precipitation and wind patterns. We had two large polar eruptions last winter and saw extremely strong circumpolar winds that trapped the cold Arctic air mass north. The volcanic debris is still in the stratosphere

• Where the heat from the solar radiation is stored - Seventy percent of the Earth surface is ocean water and the currents in the water transport heat and energy. The main cycles that shift temperatures and alter global weather are shown in Figure 7.

David Fuller's view Having taken a number of profits last Friday and particularly this Monday, I felt that I should step back in on seeing gold and silver extend their recoveries this afternoon. Had I gone to a bar instead, I would have waited on seeing the subsequent reactions that occurred. Anyway, I paid up for gold at $1785.2 for the Dec position, increasing my long position by a third. Similarly, I repurchased the silver sold last Friday, paying $35.123 and $35.105 for Dec positions. I bought platinum below where I had previously sold it, repurchasing half of my earlier position at $1645.3 and $1642.3 for the Oct position, even though this will face a contract rollover next Thursday. I bought palladium more cheaply as well, paying $673.7 and $672.7 for Dec positions. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs.

These purchases are certainly not without near-term risk since some choppy ranging would not be surprising in a further consolidation of strong gains during the previous four weeks. I may trade accordingly, given the opportunity, but remain very bullish for the medium to longer term.